The Mexican economy grew a bit more slowly than expected in 2023

Delia Paredes & Genevieve Signoret

(Hay una versión en español de este artículo aquí.)

Data published by the National Institute of Statistics and Geography (Inegi) show that the Mexican economy expanded by 3.2%. This figure fell short of our projected 3.4%. Economic activity appears to have slowed down more than we had anticipated in the final quarter of the year, with annualized quarterly growth declining to 0.3% from the 4.3% seen in July–September.

The economy lost steam in the fourth quarter

Mexico: Real GDP, seasonally adjusted (q/q % change, annual rate)

Source: Inegi.

Economic activity in 2023 was driven by dynamism in the services and construction sectors. In an earlier post, we mentioned various tailwinds spurring service demand. Propelling construction are two forces: (1) the government’s flagship projects, and (2) private sector investment in preparation for nearshoring.

Economic growth was driven by the construction and services in 2023

Mexico: 2023 real GDP, not seasonally adjusted

Source: Inegi.