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La Carpeta Negra

Opinión y estrategia en mercados globales

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Timón Económico

Monitoreo y perspectivas de la economía global

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La Próxima Semana

Events in red are those most likely to shake markets.

During the week

  • Russia: Markit manufacturing and service PMIs (Apr). Russia’s in a recession. So far this year no PMI has crossed into expansion territory (exceeded 50).

Tuesday 21

  • Mexico: Banxico international reserves. Gross reserves for April 10 were $194.8 Bn. Reserve accumulation has slowed down since 11 March 2015 when, to attenuate exchange rate volatility, the central bank began auctioning at no minimum exchange rate US$52 Mn daily. Monthly Index of Economic Activity, or IGAE (Feb). Analysts expect acceleration compared with January but slow growth nonetheless.

Wednesday 22

  • Japan: Real and nominal international trade. Exports will likely show abnormally great improvement from February levels depressed by the Lunar Year vacation period in China. Japanese exports to China plunged in February by more than 17%.
  • Turkey: Monetary policy decision. Despite depreciation in the Turkish lira, we see the central bank staying on hold at 7.50% for the 1-week repo rate, 7.25% for the overnight borrowing rate, and 10.75% for the overnight lending rate. Demand is weak and forex volatility is being correctly attributed to the global environment, not the local one.
  • UK: Bank of England (BoE) Minutes for the 15 April 2015 meeting at which the Monetary Policy Committee voted to maintain the bank rate at 0.5% and the size of the Asset Purchase Program at £357 bn. We think the vote was anonymous.
  • USA: FHFA house price index (Feb). Home prices in the USA continue to trend up. This index rose by 5.1–5.4% year on year between November 2014 and January 2015. Existing home sales (Mar). We expect existing home sales to have continued to trend up in March.

Vea la semana completa...

 

Nuestra Perspectiva Monetaria Global

Lugar Tasa actual % Último cambio Próxima decisión
Fecha Cambio (pb) Fecha Pronóstico a (pb)
EUA 0-0.25 16 dic 2008 -75 29 abr 2015 S/c en 0.25
Japón 0-0.10 5 oct 2010 -5 30 abr 2015 S/c en 0.10
Zona Euro 0.05 4 sep 2014 -10 3 jun 2015 S/c en 0.05
UK 0.50 9 abr 2009 -50 11 may 2015 S/c en 0.50
México 3.00 5 dec 2014 -50 4 jun 2015 S/c en 3.00
Nota: a. Proyección TransEconomics. Fuente: Bancos centrales, TransEconomics.