La Carpeta Negra

Opinión y estrategia en mercados globales

Lea más acerca de La Carpeta Negra, o abra el blog pulsando aquí. También puede suscribirse para recibir las entradas en su correo. El registro es rápido y gratuito.


Timón Económico

Monitoreo y perspectivas de la economía global

Lea más acerca de Timón Económico, o abra el blog pulsando aquí. También puede suscribirse para recibir las entradas en su correo. El registro es rápido y gratuito.



La Próxima Semana

Events in red are those most likely to shake markets.


All week

  • Middle East: Russia versus USA and Turkey (NATO) in Syria, Obama policy. Watch for signs of confrontation between Russia and the USA. Russia has intervened in Syria in support of Bashar al-Assad, whom the USA wants oust. Russia has bombed non-ISIS CIA-trained rebels and invaded the air space of NATO member Turkey. The Obama administration is rumored to be reconsidering its fuzzy Syria policy.
  • USA: U.S. struggle for replacement house speaker and looming deadline for raising the debt limit. U.S. House Speaker John Boehner wants to quit that post but can’t till a different Republican leader has emerged to take over. Meanwhile, the deadlines for raising the debt limit for the U.S. Treasury (early November) are approaching fast.

Monday 12 October

  • Global: OPEC oil market report (Sep). (See the Tuesday 13 entry: “IEA oil market report”.)
  • Euro Area: Eurogroup meeting.

Tuesday 13

  • Global: IEA oil market report (Sep). Analysts are all over the map in their crude oil forecasts. Recently, Genevieve read in a 30-minute span one expert forecast that Brent would accelerate to $75/barrel next year, another say it would crash to below $20/barrel, and a third say it had stabilized. The IEA does not publish a price forecast but rather backward looking estimates and forward-looking projections of supply, demand, and stocks. Its numbers tend to sway markets more than do those of OPEC, whose monthly report generally comes out the same week and this month comes out the day before.
  • China: Foreign trade (Sep)Analysts expect China’s merchandise trade to have contracted last month on a year-on-year basis for the third month in a row. We don’t expect this bad news to cause market any surprise.
  • Japan: Money supply (Sep).
  • Korea: Unemployment rate (Sep).
  • UK: Consumer prices (Sep). Annual inflation is forecast to dip to 0.1% from nil and core inflation should accelerate slightly to 1.1%. The gap is explained chiefly by oil prices, as is the case in most developed economies, where gasoline prices tend to float freely. We now think that the UK will raise interest rates later than the Fed (it used to be the other way around).

Vea la semana completa...


Nuestra Perspectiva Monetaria Global

Lugar Tasa actual % Último cambio Próxima decisión
Fecha Cambio (pb) Fecha Pronóstico a (pb)
EUA 0-0.25 16 dic 2008 -75 28 oct 2015 S/c en 0.25
Japón 0-0.10 5 oct 2010 -5 7 oct 2015 S/c en 0.10
Zona Euro 0.05 4 sep 2014 -10 22 oct 2015 S/c en 0.05
UK 0.50 5 mar 2009 -50 8 oct 2015 S/c en 0.50
México 3.00 5 dec 2014 -50 29 oct 2015 S/c en 3.00
Nota: a. Proyección TransEconomics. Fuente: Bancos centrales, TransEconomics.