The Fed expects to speed up its pace of tightening although core PCE inflation persists below the Fed’s 2% target and despite Fed claims that 2% is a symmetric target, not a targeted upper limit.We think this is a mistake and that it will cause the Fed to continue to fail over the next two […]

North Korea is a tail risk All three of our forecast scenarios assume that North Korea and the USA will avoid violence. Our decision to explicitly include this in our list of assumptions underlying all three scenarios is our way of telling you that we see its breakdown (violence breaking out between North Korea and […]