BCE espera a políticos europeos para iniciar OMT

Genevieve Signoret & Patrick Signoret

Tenemos más análisis para complementar nuestra nota de ayer sobre la reunión de política monetaria del BCE. Los dos puntos más importantes: (a) el banco central está preparado para iniciar OMT (programa de compras de activos soberanos en el mercado secundario), y espera que los políticos europeos tomen las medidas necesarias para activarlo (que un país solicite ayuda financiera del fondo europeo de rescate y que los demás países lo concedan); (b) la decisión de dejar la tasa sin cambio (en 0.75%) fue unánime y probablemente no será recortada hasta que el BCE considere que ya funcionan los mecanismos de transmisión de la política monetaria convencional. (Conferencia de prensa, Barclays, FT).

Barclays (requiere suscripción):

The main focus of today’s ECB press conference was: i) to underline the importance of the OMTs as a fully effective backstop against euro area fragmentation and the “materialisation of destructive scenarios” (including a robust defence of this prospective new instrument within the ECB’s framework); and ii) to place the decision concerning OMT activation firmly on the table for governments to determine.

Financial Times:

Mario Draghi, president of the European Central Bank, on Thursday came close to demanding that European leaders make use of his bond-buying plan, as data showed a worsening credit squeeze facing small business across much of southern Europe.

The bank held its interest rates unchanged at historically low levels, as expected, but made clear in its economic analysis that risks “continue to be on the downside” in the face of weak growth prospects and an expected slowdown in inflation across the eurozone.

Those factors would in normal times argue in favour of a further rate cut but Mr Draghi said the 22-member ECB governing council […] had not even discussed interest rate cuts. Instead, he emphasised that the ECB’s Outright Monetary Transactions, or OMT programme, first outlined last month, was waiting to be used.

Estos son los pasajes de la conferencia de prensa que dejaron claro que el BCE no volverá a recortar su tasa hasta que considere que los mecanismos de transmisión de la política monetaria convencional funcionen nuevamente:

Question: Would a rate cut even be conceivable at the moment given that the transmission mechanism is broken and would there be any point in conducting such a thing until the OMT has been used or there has been a sustainable and significant drop in the bond yields of the countries that have distressed bond markets? Or is that an over-emphasis of the way you see this broken transmission mechanism?

[…] Draghi: On the first question, in a sense it is a purely hypothetical question. But it can be addressed by saying that non-standard monetary policy measures are being designed and implemented when the standard ones are not fully effective. Otherwise, we would simply stay with the standard policy measures. So, in a sense, this answers your question.

Question: Can you carry on using standard measures at the same time as having to deploy non-standard ones?

Draghi: Well, we have to see if we can repair the monetary policy transmission channels. We do not speculate on future changes in interest rates. I think that the Governing Council has assessed that the price level and the rate of change of prices is in line with medium-term price stability, according to our definition. So, that is the assessment we made about the interest rate and, as I said, there was no discussion.

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