Fed ve mayor riesgo pero espera más datos para actuar

Genevieve Signoret & Patrick Signoret

El comité de política monetaria de la Fed (FOMC por sus siglas en inglés) no anunció ninguna nueva medida de estímulo monetario, a pesar de que su comunicado fue, nuevamente, más pesimista que el anterior (WSJ, NYT).

En el comunicado, el FOMC ahora dijo que la actividad económica se ha desacelerado, en vez de decir que se expande moderadamente. (Énfasis nuestro.)

Information received since the Federal Open Market Committee met in June suggests that economic activity decelerated somewhat over the first half of this year. Growth in employment has been slow in recent months, and the unemployment rate remains elevated. Business fixed investment has continued to advance. Household spending has been rising at a somewhat slower pace than earlier in the year. Despite some further signs of improvement, the housing sector remains depressed. Inflation has declined since earlier this year, mainly reflecting lower prices of crude oil and gasoline, and longer-term inflation expectations have remained stable.

No anuncia nuevas decisiones, pero dice estar preparado para tomar mayores medidas acomodaticias en caso necesario (énfasis nuestro):

[…] To support a stronger economic recovery and to help ensure that inflation, over time, is at the rate most consistent with its dual mandate, the Committee expects to maintain a highly accommodative stance for monetary policy. In particular, the Committee decided today to keep the target range for the federal funds rate at 0 to 1/4 percent and currently anticipates that economic conditions–including low rates of resource utilization and a subdued outlook for inflation over the medium run–are likely to warrant exceptionally low levels for the federal funds rate at least through late 2014.

The Committee also decided to continue through the end of the year its program to extend the average maturity of its holdings of securities as announced in June, and it is maintaining its existing policy of reinvesting principal payments from its holdings of agency debt and agency mortgage-backed securities in agency mortgage-backed securities. The Committee will closely monitor incoming information on economic and financial developments and will provide additional accommodation as needed to promote a stronger economic recovery and sustained improvement in labor market conditions in a context of price stability.

Vea todas las diferencias entre los comunicados en WSJ.

La Fed podría estar esperando los dos reportes de empleo y las nuevas proyecciones económicas del comité antes de llevar a cabo más estímulo, según NYT:

And the Fed’s chairman, Ben S. Bernanke, has said that the Fed is “committed to ensuring, or at least doing all we can to ensure” that unemployment continues to decline, suggesting officials may simply be waiting to see the government’s estimates of job growth in July and August, which will be released before the committee reconvenes Sept. 12 and 13.

[…] But much of the market’s attention already has turned to the September meeting, when the Fed also will update its economic projections.

Según Jon Hilsenrath y Kristina Peterson de WSJ, el lenguaje del comunicado fue inusitadamente fuerte e interpreta la decisión como una promesa condicional de tomar mayores medidas en septiembre:

The decision to make what amounted to a conditional promise of action came Wednesday at the end of the central bank’s two-day policy meeting. In an uncharacteristically strong statement, the Fed said it will “closely monitor” the economy and “will provide additional accommodation as needed to promote a stronger economic recovery and sustained improvement in labor market conditions.” Translation: The Fed will move if growth and employment don’t pick up soon on their own.

As central bank messages go, this was a stark declaration and helped soften disappointment among investors that the Fed didn’t take such action on Wednesday, as some had expected. The Dow Jones Industrial Average finished the day down 37.62 points, at 12971.06. Asian shares edged higher in early trading Thursday, with Japan up 0.6%.

With the move, the strategy of Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke is coming into clearer focus. Like a prosecutor preparing a difficult case for a skeptical jury, Mr. Bernanke is building a case that the economy needs more help and that the Fed can provide it without sparking other problems.

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