Alta probabilidad de nuevas elecciones en Grecia

Genevieve Signoret & Patrick Signoret

El partido conservador Nueva Democracia, primer lugar con 19% de los votos, no logró formar un gobierno. Las probabilidades que el segundo lugar (o, después, el tercer lugar) logren formar coaliciones es muy baja. Podrían llevarse a cabo elecciones en algunas semanas (LATimes, Reuters, Barclays).

LATimes:

Continued failure by Greece’s parties to agree on a coalition could force a second snap election within 35 days, piling political instability on top of the country’s financial uncertainty.

Reuters:

Radical Leftist Alexis Tsipras began efforts to form a Greek government on Tuesday by renouncing the terms of an international bailout and threatening to nationalize banks in a statement likely to reduce his chances of success.

…EU officials have rejected any compromise on the terms of the bailout and without it, Greece would run out of money by the end of June, officials estimate.

…If Tsipras fails, the president will give a final mandate to PASOK leader Evangelos Venizelos, whose party was the biggest loser in the election. If he, in turn, is unable to form a government, Greeks would go to the polls again in three to four weeks.

Barclays:

Political uncertainty remains high in Greece. A new electoral round  (which would probably be held on 10 or 17 June) looks increasing likely at this stage as, in our view,  none of the three parties with the most votes seem likely to be able to secure Parliamentary support for a coalition government.

…In a second general election only the seven parties who received seats in Sunday’s vote would be eligible to participate. Were there to be a second election, we think New Democracy and PASOK would probably seek to turn the election into a decision on Greece’s membership of the euro. If there was still an inconclusive result after a second election, then it is likely that Lucas Papademos would be invited to form another technical government.

Fuente: Barclays Instant Highlights 8 mayo 2012: “Greece: Large parties struggle to form a government”.

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