S&P subió la calificación de deuda soberana griega

Genevieve Signoret & Patrick Signoret

S&P subió la calificación de deuda soberana griega, sacándolo de territorio de incumplimiento. La calificación de CCC sigue siendo de “bono basura”.

Kathimerini:

Standard & Poor’s raised Greece’s credit rating to low-speculative grade on Wednesday, lifting it out of default territory as expected.

The rating firm warned that the recession and a May 6 general election were posing risks to fiscal adjustments needed to further cut Greece’s debt.

Fitch assigned Greece a speculative B-rating mid-March, becoming the first major rating agency to lift the country out of default territory…

La subida de calificación aplica sólo a los bonos canjeados en la reestructura llevada a cabo en marzo.

El día 15 de mayo vence un pago de bonos excluidos del trato de marzo. Si se hace a tiempo el pago (lo cual anticipamos), entonces S&P también subirá la calificación de estos bonos a CCC, desde D.

Frases claves del texto de S&P (vía Reuters):

The fiscal consolidation underway is largely premised on tax hikes and improved tax collection, an extensive privatization program, and wholesale cuts in government spending. We believe this adjustment has implementation risks given the likely further contraction of the sovereign’s GDP this year and next, which will likely result in persistent social pressures. The adjustment in our view will be particularly challenging after the upcoming May 6 parliamentary elections. Moreover, additional, albeit yet unspecified, deficit-reducing measures are likely to further exacerbate popular discontent with Greece’s budgetary consolidation strategy.

The ‘CCC’ rating on Greece reflects … our view of the significant stresses on Greece’s creditworthiness, including:

  • Uncertain economic growth prospects.
  • Weakening political consensus for ambitious and largely unpopular reforms.
  • Greece’s large, albeit narrowing, external deficit. Despite a severe and prolonged economic recession, Greece’s current account deficit (CAD) to GDP ratio has narrowed only moderately to 9.8% of GDP in 2011 from its peak in 2008 of 14.9% of GDP
  • At an estimated 52% of GDP (EUR107.3 billion) as of end-February 2012, the Bank of Greece Target2 balance with the ECB remains at elevated levels, signifying the Greek financial sector’s continued dependency on official sector funding.
  • A high government debt burden, even following completion of the exchange resulting in the new bonds’ increased average maturity and the reduction in Greece’s debt service costs. We expect government debt to range between 160% and 170% of GDP in the period 2012-2015.

The rating on Greece is supported by our view of:

  • A relatively high level of income per capita.
  • The supportive financial sector policy, as reflected in stability measures. Despite severe macrofinancial challenges faced by domestic financial sector institutions, these measures have limited the stress on domestic depositary confidence including during the period of debt restructuring.

Outlook:

We could raise our long-term rating on Greece if the new government takes tangible steps to comply with the EU/IMF program, thus restoring predictability in its policymaking efforts, as well as contributing to a sustained economic recovery.

The ratings could be lowered if we believe that there is a likelihood of a distressed exchange on Greece’s remaining stock of commercial debt.

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