México: Se aceleró creación de empleos en T4

Patrick Signoret

La creación de empleos en México se aceleró en el cuarto trimestre de 2011. Los empleos totales (5.5% interanual, desde 1.9% en T3) crecieron más rápidamente que los empleos formales  (2.5%, desde 1.0% en T3). (Inegi).

México: Empleo y desempleo, T2 2001 – T4 2012
Nota: sd = serie desestacionalizada.
Comentarios: 1 comentario.
Comments
Comment from Genevieve Signoret - 2012/02/14 at 10:51 am

We’re looking at the same manufacturing and jobs momentum in Mexico that we see in the USA. This momentum is what caused us to switch central scenario for global economy to Slow Growth from Recession in 2012. We assign to this scenario a mere 55% probability. Meaning, when we switched central scenarios, we did so with shaky confidence.
We entertain three hypotheses as to what’s driving the unexpected momentum in the U.S. and Mexican economies: (a) the wealth effect from resilient risk appetites (risk assets rallied starting in November, although now they’re stalled, awaiting the outcome–bailout or blowup–in Greece); (b) a release of pent up consumer demand in the USA, especially for durables and especially for cars; (c) demand deriving from structural changes in emerging Asia: China and its neighboring supplier countries.
To expand on (c): Chinese are migrating to the city, eating meat and other taking on other middle class consumer habits. This is a long-term structural change in China’s economy and the global economy, the force of which is proving more resilient than we had expected. I’m telling a decoupling story here: Even a slowing China may be growing fast enough to help the non-European world economy avoid a recession (although not a slowdown).
We didn’t expect this, and all the way till late in January were predicting the opposite, while holding Slow Growth as our upside risk scenario. The good U.S. data, especially the come-back in PMIs, spurred us to switch central scenarios.
Our confidence in our switch, however, is low (subjective probability = 55%). Our Slow Growth scenario rests on the high-risk assumption that Greece’s March default is orderly. We define “orderly” as the following:
* A bailout happens (although it’s not the last one).
* It’s a default because there are holdouts in the bond swap deal, and it triggers CDS payouts.
* It’s orderly because a deal with most private bondholders private is reached.
The biggest risk to that assumption lies, over course, in Greece. The public is rebelling, understandably. Opposition and minority coalition politicians are hearing their message loud and clear.
Genevieve