US industrial output stands out—thanks to shale boom

Genevieve Signoret

Activity

• In the USA, overall industrial output is up four percentage points since December 2007, but manufacturing output is only up one point. At the same time, mining is up 30 points. Within mining, gas and oil extraction is up 57%. What is driving up overall industrial production in the USA is the shale boom.
• Global IP numbers are solid in the USA, horrific in Brazil, improved in Spain and India, and weak-to-worrisome nearly everywhere else.
• Slack is vast. USA is the sole developed economy among eight that we follow closely where industrial output today is higher than it was in December 2007.
• Mexico and India stand out among the seven emerging economies we track closely as the only two in which industrial output is accelerating on trend.

U.S. manufacturing output is only up one percentage point since December 2007. Not manufacturing but rather the shale boom is driving the composite average.

Mexico’s industrial production is 4 percentage points higher than in December 2007. China’s (not shown) has doubled.

Global IP growth trends are mostly mediocre. The USA is a notable exception.

Global IP numbers are solid in the USA, horrific in Brazil, improved in Spain and India, and weak-to-worrisome nearly everywhere else

Slack is vast: industrial output in just 1 of these 8 developed economies has surpassed levels achieved in December 2007

IP’s accelerating in the USA but slowing down in Japan, the EZ (and in particular Germany) and in the UK

Mexico and India stand out among these emerging economies as the only two where IP is accelerating on trend

China’s industrial output is growing (on trend) at about half the speed observed in 2010

Industrial output in Mexico has expanded by 4 percentage points in Mexico since Dec 2007. Manufacturing: 13 percentage points.