La Fed visualiza el futuro de su balance y de sus tasas

Genevieve Signoret

En las minutas de la reunión de política monetaria de la Fed sostenida el 29 y 30 de julio pasados, la Fed señaló que hoy visualiza el proyecto de encoger su balance en el largo plazo. La cartera resultante estará compuesta principalmente de bonos del Tesoro. Hoy tiene también títulos respaldados por hipotecas. No ha emergido todavía un consenso sobre la cuestión de cómo deshacerse de estos, si venderlos o esperar pasivamente a que venzan. La minuta confirma que, cuando se normalice la política monetaria, la Fed comenzará a manejar ya no una tasa como antes, sino tres: las de fondos federales, la de reportos inversos y la tasa sobre excedentes de reservas. La minuta también revela un consenso sobre la elección de la tasa referencia principal: seguirá siendo la de fondos federales. La minuta no dio sorpresas respecto a la perspectiva del Comité sobre la inflación, la actividad económica o el mercado laboral.

El FOMC dará detalles sobre el proceso de normalización mucho antes de las primeras alzas en tasas:

Meeting participants continued their discussion of issues associated with the eventual normalization of the stance and conduct of monetary policy, consistent with the Committee’s intention to provide additional information to the public later this year, well before most participants anticipate the first steps in reducing policy accommodation to become appropriate.

Mantendrá como instrumento principal la tasa de fondos federales, no la tasa overnight de reporto inverso (ON RRP) ni la tasa de interés sobre excedentes de reservas (IOER):

Almost all participants agreed that it would be appropriate to retain the federal funds rate as the key policy rate, and they supported continuing to target a range of 25 basis points for this rate at the time of liftoff and for some time thereafter.

However, one participant preferred to use the range for the federal funds rate as a communication tool rather than as a hard target, and another preferred that policy communications during the normalization period focus on the rate of interest on excess reserves (IOER) and the ON RRP rate in addition to the federal funds rate.

Participants agreed that adjustments in the IOER rate would be the primary tool used to move the federal funds rate into its target range and influence other money market rates. In addition, most thought that temporary use of a limited-scale ON RRP facility would help set a firmer floor under money market interest rates during normalization.

Most participants anticipated that, at least initially, the IOER rate would be set at the top of the target range for the federal funds rate, and the ON RRP rate would be set at the bottom of the federal funds target range.

Alternatively, some participants suggested the ON RRP rate could be set below the bottom of the federal funds target range, judging that it might be possible to begin the normalization process with minimal or no reliance on an ON RRP facility and increase its role only if necessary.

However, many other participants thought that such a strategy might result in insufficient control of money market rates at liftoff, which could cause confusion about the likely path of monetary policy or raise questions about the Committee’s ability to implement policy effectively.

Participants generally agreed that the ON RRP facility should be only as large as needed for effective monetary policy implementation and should be phased out when it is no longer needed for that purpose. Participants expressed their desire to include features in the facility’s design that would limit the Federal Reserve’s role in financial intermediation and mitigate the risk that the facility might magnify strains in short-term funding markets during periods of financial stress.

Los presentes concordaron en que la hoja de balance debería reducirse de tamaño en el largo plazo. Por el lado de activos, visualizan una cartera compuesta principalmente de bonos del Tesoro. Esto implica un gradual abandono de la política de estimulación al sector de vivienda:

They believed that, in the long run, the balance sheet should be reduced to the smallest level consistent with efficient implementation of monetary policy and should consist primarily of Treasury securities in order to minimize the effect of the SOMA portfolio on the allocation of credit across sectors of the economy.

Hoy día tiene también activos respaldados por hipotecas (MBS). No emergió un consenso sobre si vender éstos o simplemente permitir que se vayan venciendo:

Most participants continued to anticipate that the Committee would not sell MBS, except perhaps to eliminate residual holdings. However, a couple of participants preferred to sell MBS in order to unwind the effect of the Federal Reserve’s holdings on mortgage rates relative to other interest rates more rapidly than would occur as a result of repayments of principal alone.

Some others noted that, given the uncertainties attending the normalization process and the outlook for the economy and financial markets, it could be helpful to retain the option to sell some assets.

La inflación se ha acercado hacía el objetivo de largo plazo de la Fed:

Participants noted that inflation had moved somewhat closer to the Committee’s 2 percent longer-run objective and generally saw the risks of inflation running persistently below their objective as having diminished somewhat.

La debilidad del sector de vivienda y en el ingreso de los hogares así como la situación en Ucrania y medio oriente podrían ser fuentes de riesgos a la baja para la actividad económica:

Although most participants continued to view the risks to the outlook for economic activity and the labor market as nearly balanced, some pointed to possible sources of downside risk, including persistent weakness in the housing sector, a continued slow rise in household income, or spillovers from developments in the Middle East and Ukraine.

La mejoría en el mercado laboral fue mayor a la esperada:

Participants generally agreed that both the recent improvement in labor market conditions and the cumulative progress over the past year had been greater than anticipated and that labor market conditions had moved noticeably closer to those viewed as normal in the longer run. Participants differed, however, in their assessments of the remaining degree of labor market slack and how to measure it.

Las vulnerabilidades del sistema financiero están bien contenidas:

In their discussion of financial stability issues, participants noted evidence of valuation pressures in some particular asset markets, but those pressures did not appear to be widespread and other measures of vulnerability in the financial system were at low to moderate levels. As a result, they generally saw the vulnerabilities in the financial system as well contained

Si la economía se recupera más rápido de lo esperado, el alza en tasas será más temprana:

Many participants noted that if convergence toward the Committee’s objectives occurred more quickly than expected, it might become appropriate to begin removing monetary policy accommodation sooner than they currently anticipated. Indeed, some participants viewed the actual and expected progress toward the Committee’s goals as sufficient to call for a relatively prompt move toward reducing policy accommodation to avoid overshooting the Committee’s unemployment and inflation objectives over the medium term. (…) Most participants indicated that any change in their expectations for the appropriate timing of the first increase in the federal funds rate would depend on further information on the trajectories of economic activity, the labor market, and inflation.

Un miembro no estuvo de acuerdo en mantener el rango actual para la tasa de los fondos federales:

After the discussion, all members but one voted to maintain the Committee’s target range for the federal funds rate and to reiterate its forward guidance on how it would assess the appropriate timing of the first increase in the target rate and the anticipated behavior of the federal funds rate after it is raised.

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