FOMC en pausa; menciona riesgo de inflación lenta
Genevieve Signoret & Patrick Signoret
El FOMC no anunció cambios en su programa de relajamiento cuantitativo (QE3): el ritmo de compras de activos se mantiene en $85 MMn mensuales. El cambio más notable en el comunicado fue el reconocimiento explícito del riesgo potencial que representaría una tasa de inflación persistentemente por debajo del objetivo de 2.0%. Anticipamos en nuestro escenario central que el FOMC anunciará una disminución en el ritmo de compras de activos en su próxima reunión, 17-18 septiembre. Como siempre, Real Time Economics de WSJ presenta todos los cambios en el lenguaje del comunicado.
El FOMC muestra preocupación por las tasas hipotecarias en aumento (énfasis nuestro):
Information received since the Federal Open Market Committee met in June suggests that economic activity expanded at a modest pace during the first half of the year. Labor market conditions have shown further improvement in recent months, on balance, but the unemployment rate remains elevated. Household spending and business fixed investment advanced, and the housing sector has been strengthening, but mortgage rates have risen somewhat and fiscal policy is restraining economic growth. Partly reflecting transitory influences, inflation has been running below the Committee’s longer-run objective, but longer-term inflation expectations have remained stable.
Además, reconoce explícitamente el riesgo potencial que representaría una tasa de inflación persistentemente por debajo del objetivo de 2.0% (énfasis nuestro):
Consistent with its statutory mandate, the Committee seeks to foster maximum employment and price stability. The Committee expects that, with appropriate policy accommodation, economic growth will pick up from its recent pace and the unemployment rate will gradually decline toward levels the Committee judges consistent with its dual mandate. The Committee sees the downside risks to the outlook for the economy and the labor market as having diminished since the fall. The Committee recognizes that inflation persistently below its 2 percent objective could pose risks to economic performance, but it anticipates that inflation will move back toward its objective over the medium term.