Banco de Japón resiste presión política y deja postura sin cambio

Genevieve Signoret & Patrick Signoret

A pesar de que el lenguaje del comunicado fue un poco más pesimista que el anterior y que el gobierno presionó por relajar más su postura, el banco central decidió dejar sin cambio el tamaño de su programa de compras de activos. Pero se anticipa que lo hará en su reunión del 30 de octubre (FT, WSJ, Barclays). En septiembre, el banco central había extendido la duración del programa de compras de activos hasta finales de 2013 y aumentado su tamaño en ¥10 billones, a ¥80 billones.

Financial Times:

The Bank of Japan opted not to relax monetary policy on Friday, resisting overt pressure for further easing from the first government minister to attend a central-bank board meeting for almost a decade.

[…] The board noted, however, that overseas economies had moved “somewhat deeper into a deceleration phase”, dragging down Japan’s exports and industrial production. It also repeated last month’s pointed warning of the effects of a strong yen on economic activity and prices.

 […] Under the Bank of Japan Law, ministers are allowed to attend policy meetings, where they can express their views or request that decisions be postponed. Typically, though, this job falls to senior vice-ministers or parliamentary secretaries.

Wall Street Journal:

 […] Though Mr. Shirakawa says monetary policy alone won’t put an end to falling prices, some analysts still expect the BOJ to take fresh steps on Oct. 30 when the board is set to review its price forecasts and release its semiannual outlook report.

“There is a higher probability that the BOJ will take additional easing action at the same time as the release of its longer-term outlook on the economy and prices,” said Yasunari Ueno, chief market economist at Mizuho Securities. He said he expects the BOJ to expand the asset-purchase program by between ¥ 5 trillion and ¥ 10 trillion.

Barclays ( “BoJ leaves monetary policy intact, as expected, but lowers economic assessment; focus shifts to 30 October MPM”, 5 octubre 2012):

[The Bank lowered] its headline assessment again, noting that “Japan’s economic activity is levelling off more or less” versus last month’s “the pick-up in economic activity has come to a pause.”

[…] The focus now shifts to the 30 October monetary policy meeting, when the BoJ will update its GDP and CPI forecasts for FY12-13 and extend them to FY14. This will “quantify” the BoJ’s recently downgraded outlook for the economy. The main focus will be the CPI projections, specifically, whether the BoJ continues to see the index heading toward its medium- to long-term price stability goal of 1.0%. A downgrade here could provide the fundamental rationale for further easing, especially if the JPY strengthens further. At the 19 September MPM, the BoJ pointed more explicitly to JPY appreciation as a potential catalyst for further easing. In the Tankan, however, large manufacturers assumed the USD/JPY would average 79.06 in FY12, suggesting current levels have already been factored into their business plans.

[…] Regardless of specific measures, the calls from both ruling and opposition camps for the BoJ to do more to end deflation suggest the central bank will remain under pressure to ease and that the prospects for the government nominating doves to replace BoJ Governor Shirakawa, whose term ends 8 April 2013, and his deputies, Mr Yamaguchi and Mr Nishimura, who step down 19 March 2013, may strengthen.

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