Moody’s rebaja calificación de 16 bancos españoles

Genevieve Signoret & Patrick Signoret

La agencia calificadora Moody’s rebajó la calificación de 16 bancos españoles. Los tres más grandes del país, Santander (que también es el más grande de la ZE) BBVA y Caixabank, fueron rebajados tres escalones a A3, seis niveles debajo de la calificación máxima, y cuatro arriba de calificación basura (El País, Reuters, Moody’s vía Reuters). Sin embargo, FT reporta que, a pesar de las degradaciones, el viernes los bancos se estaban recuperando de las caídas del jueves.

El País:

La agencia de calificación de riesgos Moody’s rebajó este jueves nuevamente, en bloque, la calificación de los bancos españoles. En concreto, degradó entre uno y tres escalones la nota de 16 entidades españolas, incluidos el Banco Santander, el BBVA, CaixaBank y Banesto, así como la de la filial del Banco Santander en Reino Unido. Hace dos días la agencia rebajó también la nota a 26 bancos italianos.

Moody’s, a quien algunos acusan, junto con el resto de agencias, de provocar la crisis financiera internacional, utiliza cuatro argumentos principales para la rebaja. En primer lugar, las adversas condiciones operativas, caracterizadas por la recaída en la recesión, la continuación de la crisis inmobiliaria y los niveles de desempleo persistentemente altos. En segundo lugar, la menor solvencia de España, que afecta a la capacidad del Gobierno de apoyar a los bancos. En tercer lugar, el rápido deterioro de la calidad de los activos, con un acelerado aumento de la morosidad de los préstamos del sector inmobiliario y su posible extensión a los créditos de otros sectores. Y, por último, las dificultades de las entidades para acceder a los mercados de financiación mayorista ante las persistentes preocupaciones de los inversores sobre los bancos españoles y la deuda del Estado.

El País provee esta útil tabla para ubicar las diferentes calificaciones y compararlas con las de las otras dos grandes calificadoras:

Texto de la decisión de Moody’s vía Reuters:

Moody’s Investors Service has today downgraded by one to three notches the long-term debt and deposit ratings for 16 Spanish banks and Santander UK PLC, a UK-domiciled subsidiary of Banco Santander (Spain) SA. The rating downgrades primarily reflect the concurrent downgrades of most of these banks’ standalone credit assessments, and in five cases also Moody’s assessment that the Spanish government’s ability to provide support to the banks has reduced. The debt and deposit ratings declined by one notch for five banks, by two notches for three banks and by three notches for nine banks. The short-term ratings for 13 banks have also been downgraded between one and two notches, triggered by the long-term ratings changes.

[…]Today’s actions reflect, to various extents across banks, four main drivers: 1.) Adverse operating conditions, characterised by the renewed recession, the ongoing real-estate crisis and persistent high levels of unemployment. 2.) Reduced creditworthiness of the Spanish sovereign, which weighs on banks’ standalone profiles and affects the ability of the government to support banks. 3.) Rapid asset-quality deterioration, with non-performing loans to real-estate companies rising rapidly, and Moody’s expecting other loan categories to deteriorate. 4.) Restricted market funding access, with the ongoing euro area debt crisis contributing to persistent investor concerns about Spanish banks and the sovereign.

[No aparece el texto sobre el primer criterio; se salta al segundo:]

SECOND DRIVER – REDUCED CREDITWORTHINESS OF THE SPANISH SOVEREIGN Amidst the ongoing euro area debt crisis, the Spanish government’s rising budget deficit and the renewed recession, sovereign creditworthiness has declined. This decline is a driver of today’s bank rating actions, and it is reflected in the recent two-notch downgrade of the government bond rating to A3, with a negative outlook (see 13 February 2012 press release “Moody’s adjusts ratings of 9 European sovereigns to capture downside risks”:). Moody’s says that the standalone credit strength of many Spanish banks has weakened, as they are linked in multiple ways to the sovereign. These linkages include (i) the impact of the government’s financial position on the domestic economy; and (ii) the large exposures of most banks to their domestic government and to other counterparties who depend on the government. Reduced government creditworthiness also affects the ability of the government to support banks, as discussed under “Ratings Rationale – Senior Debt and Deposit Ratings” below.

THIRD DRIVER – RAPID ASSET-QUALITY DETERIORATION Another factor underpinning today’s rating actions is the sharp increase of problem loans already observed and Moody’s view that loan delinquencies will continue to rise in coming quarters. The rating agency bases this view partly on the very weak performance of loans to companies in the real-estate and construction sectors, which accounted for 23% of Spanish banks’ lending to the private sector at year-end 2011. Moreover, Moody’s expects the recession and very high unemployment to cause asset-quality deterioration also for loans to households and non-real-estate-related businesses. These loan categories have shown only moderate weakening to date. Accelerating problem loans in the real-estate sector have already driven total domestic non-performing loans of the Spanish banking system to 8.2% of total loans at the end of February 2012, up from less than 1% at year-end 2007 (source: Bank of Spain). Moody’s notes that the amount of non-paying assets is even higher, if real estate acquired as payment-in-kind from troubled borrowers is included.

FOURTH DRIVER – RESTRICTED MARKET FUNDING ACCESS Contributing to today’s rating actions, Spanish banks are facing less cost-effective, volatile and at times restricted access to wholesale funding markets. Moody’s recognises that Spanish banks on average funded 46% of total assets with deposits at year-end 2011 (source: ECB), a high level compared with other Western European banking systems. Nonetheless, banks rely to varying degrees on market funds, leaving most susceptible to the persistent market tensions. Partly due to market tensions, Spanish banks have increased their ECB borrowings by more than six times since June 2011, to the highest level in absolute terms among euro area banking systems as of April 2012. The availability of three-year funds from the ECB has mitigated near-term funding stress. However, significant central bank reliance raises the issue of how Spanish banks will be able to reduce their ECB funding reliance over time. Whilst Spanish banks have deleveraged in 2011 by not fully renewing maturing loans, the scope for further deleveraging is unclear.

RATINGS RATIONALE – SENIOR DEBT AND DEPOSIT RATINGS

ACTIONS FOLLOW REVIEW ANNOUNCEMENTS ON 15 FEBRUARY 2012 AND OTHER DATES Today’s rating actions follow Moody’s decision to review for downgrade the ratings for many European financial institutions, including Spanish banks, see “Moody’s reviews ratings for European Banks”, 15 February 2012 (). On 7 May 2012, Moody’s extended the review for Santander to its short-term ratings (see “Announcement: Moody’s extends Santander’s current ratings review to include its short-term ratings” (). Moody’s previously placed several Spanish bank ratings on review on 12 December 2011, see “Rating Action: Moody’s reviews Spanish banks’ ratings for downgrade; removes systemic support for subordinated debt” (); “Announcement: Moody’s reviews Banco Popular’s ratings for downgrade and ratings of Banco Pastor for upgrade (Spain)”, 10 October 2011 (); “Announcement: Moody’s reviews Unicaja’s ratings for downgrade and Caja España’s ratings for upgrade following merger agreement”, 27 September 2011 ().

WHAT COULD MOVE THE RATINGS UP/DOWN Moody’s believes that rating upgrades are unlikely in the near future for banks affected by today’s actions, for the reasons given above. Whilst the current rating levels and outlooks incorporate a degree of expected further deterioration, the rating agency is of the opinion that the banks’ ratings may decline further if (i) operating conditions worsen beyond Moody’s current expectations; (ii) the Spanish sovereign’s creditworthiness declines further; (iii) asset-quality deterioration exceeds Moody’s current expectations; and (iv) pressures from market-funding restrictions intensify. However, Moody’s believes that a limited amount of upward rating momentum could develop if the banks substantially improve their credit profiles and resilience to the prevailing conditions. This may occur through increased standalone strength, for example as a result of bolstered capital and liquidity buffers, work-out of asset-quality challenges, improved earnings or improved funding conditions. Ratings could also benefit from increased external support.

(El texto continúa con el detalle de la rebaja para cada banco.)

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