Bernanke y Pianalto sobre viviendas: rentar, demoler o atraer

Patrick Signoret

El viernes, Bernanke y Pianalto dieron discursos enfocados en el sector vivienda. Cada quien se dio diferentes explicaciones y propuso soluciones.

Bernanke habló (PDF) de los problemas en el sector vivienda y se refirió a la renta de casas como una posible solución al exceso (causado por las ejecuciones hipotecarias) de oferta de viviendas. La conclusión de su discurso es un buen resumen:

In sum, the economic recovery has been disappointing in part because U.S. housing markets remain out of balance. Many local markets have an overhang of empty and foreclosed homes, and many potentially creditworthy homebuyers cannot obtain mortgages. The weak housing market also impairs homeowners” financial health and diminishes the quality and stability of neighborhoods and communities. For these reasons, and because the troubled housing market depresses construction activity and employment, we need to continue to develop and implement policies that will help the housing sector get back on its feet. No single solution will be sufficient. But sustained efforts to address the many interlocking factors holding back the housing market will pay dividends in the long run.

Una de las soluciones al exceso de casas en las que se enfoca Bernanke es rentar las casas que están vacías por ejecuciones hipotecarias (foreclosures):

With home prices falling and rents rising, it could make sense in some markets to turn some of the foreclosed homes into rental properties. According to Federal Reserve staff calculations, most [real estate owned, or REO] properties are in neighborhoods with median house values and incomes that are roughly similar to the medians for the metropolitan area overall. Moreover, these properties are not unusually far, in terms of commuting times, from where jobs are located. We have compared computations of the expected annual cash flows from renting properties to the discounted prices that REO property holders typically receive when selling a home. The comparison suggests that some REO holders might come out ahead by renting, rather than by selling, some of their properties.

Moreover, keeping paying tenants in homes–including leasing to the former owners at market rents–may, in some cases, be the best way to maintain property values and the quality of neighborhoods. REO-to-rental programs could potentially also minimize the amount of time that a vacant property languishes in REO inventory. That is, appropriately structured programs could help some involuntary renters become owners again by giving them options to purchase the homes they are renting.

Sandra Pianalto, presidente de la Fed de Cleveland, se enfocó en el caso de Cleveland y ofreció otras soluciones. Una es la “reducción de la oferta de casas” (i.e. destruirlas). Discute las ventajas y desventajas:

One policy option that is receiving a lot of attention is to aggressively reduce the supply of housing, particularly low-value housing… Our research leads us to believe that land banks can play a vital role in the mix of policy options to address abandoned properties, specifically low-value properties… While reducing the supply of housing stock certainly should have a positive effect on neighboring property values, I think it is an incomplete solution. We also need to focus on the demand side of the market.

My staff looked at what caused the significant increase in property values prior to the crisis in the “hotter” housing markets. This is relevant as we consider the policy of reducing the supply of housing stock. We know that housing prices include both the cost of the structure and the value of the land on which the structure sits. Our research found that since the 1950s, the price of residential property across the nation rose faster than the cost of building the structures themselves. In regions with more rapidly growing property values, much of the increase in value came from the value of the land, not from the value of the structure. This research concluded that the supply and demand for land for residential housing drove the change in housing values. Based on this relationship, demolishing low-value housing stock may not have a lasting or significant impact in increasing property values, unless there is a strong, ongoing interest in the land itself.

Otra solución, menos directa y a más largo plazo, es hacer que las comunidades se vuelvan lugares más atractivos para vivir y trabajar:

This brings me to my second point-that property values will rise only when our neighborhoods and communities become more appealing places to live and work. For older, industrial cities to be able to retain existing residents, as well as attract new people, our communities need to offer amenities such as good schools, access to transportation, safety and green spaces. Communities that can attract residents with the skills to earn good incomes should see an increased demand for housing, and in turn, neighborhood revitalization. To accomplish this, however, we must look beyond housing capital and look at human capital.

Sus ideas para esto incluyen mejorar el nivel educativo y generar “grandes coaliciones” que incluyan al gobierno, empresas privadas, instituciones financieras, fundaciones y grupos dedicados al desarrollo comunitario.

El viernes, Bernanke y Pianalto dieron discursos enfocados en el sector vivienda. Cada quién se enfocó en diferentes explicaciones y soluciones.

Bernanke habló (PDF) de los problemas en el sector vivienda y se enfocó en la renta de casas como una posible solución al exceso de oferta de casas (por las ejecuciones hipotecarias). La conclusión de su discurso es un buen resumen.

In sum, the economic recovery has been disappointing in part because U.S. housing markets remain out of balance. Many local markets have an overhang of empty and foreclosed homes, and many potentially creditworthy homebuyers cannot obtain mortgages. The weak housing market also impairs homeowners” financial health and diminishes the quality and stability of neighborhoods and communities. For these reasons, and because the troubled housing market depresses construction activity and employment, we need to continue to develop and implement policies that will help the housing sector get back on its feet. No single solution will be sufficient. But sustained efforts to address the many interlocking factors holding back the housing market will pay dividends in the long run.

Una de las soluciones al exceso de casas en las que se enfoca Bernanke es rentar las casas que están vacías por ejecuciones hipotecarias (foreclosures):

With home prices falling and rents rising, it could make sense in some markets to turn some of the foreclosed homes into rental properties. According to Federal Reserve staff calculations, most [real estate owned, or REO] properties are in neighborhoods with median house values and incomes that are roughly similar to the medians for the metropolitan area overall. Moreover, these properties are not unusually far, in terms of commuting times, from where jobs are located. We have compared computations of the expected annual cash flows from renting properties to the discounted prices that REO property holders typically receive when selling a home. The comparison suggests that some REO holders might come out ahead by renting, rather than by selling, some of their properties.

Moreover, keeping paying tenants in homes–including leasing to the former owners at market rents–may, in some cases, be the best way to maintain property values and the quality of neighborhoods. REO-to-rental programs could potentially also minimize the amount of time that a vacant property languishes in REO inventory. That is, appropriately structured programs could help some involuntary renters become owners again by giving them options to purchase the homes they are renting.

Sandra Pianalto, presidente de la Fed de Cleveland, se enfocó en el caso de Cleveland y ofreció otras soluciones. Una es la “reducción de la oferta de casas” (i.e. destruirlas). Discute las ventajas y desventajas:

One policy option that is receiving a lot of attention is to aggressively reduce the supply of housing, particularly low-value housing… Our research leads us to believe that land banks can play a vital role in the mix of policy options to address abandoned properties, specifically low-value properties… While reducing the supply of housing stock certainly should have a positive effect on neighboring property values, I think it is an incomplete solution. We also need to focus on the demand side of the market.

My staff looked at what caused the significant increase in property values prior to the crisis in the “hotter” housing markets. This is relevant as we consider the policy of reducing the supply of housing stock. We know that housing prices include both the cost of the structure and the value of the land on which the structure sits. Our research found that since the 1950s, the price of residential property across the nation rose faster than the cost of building the structures themselves. In regions with more rapidly growing property values, much of the increase in value came from the value of the land, not from the value of the structure. This research concluded that the supply and demand for land for residential housing drove the change in housing values. Based on this relationship, demolishing low-value housing stock may not have a lasting or significant impact in increasing property values, unless there is a strong, ongoing interest in the land itself.

Otra solución, menos directa y a más largo plazo, es hacer que las comunidades se vuelvan lugares más atractivos para vivir y trabajar:

This brings me to my second point-that property values will rise only when our neighborhoods and communities become more appealing places to live and work. For older, industrial cities to be able to retain existing residents, as well as attract new people, our communities need to offer amenities such as good schools, access to transportation, safety and green spaces. Communities that can attract residents with the skills to earn good incomes should see an increased demand for housing, and in turn, neighborhood revitalization. To accomplish this, however, we must look beyond housing capital and look at human capital.

Sus ideas para esto incluyen mejorar el nivel educativo y generar “grandes coaliciones” (ofrece ejemplos de algunas de estas coaliciones).

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