Bancos centrales de Japón, India y Turquía mantienen tasas sin cambio

Genevieve Signoret & Patrick Signoret

Japón: Banco central mantiene tasa (0.00-0.10%) y programa de compra de activos sin cambio (Banco de Japón). Voto unánime.

Japan’s economic activity has been more or less flat, mainly due to the effects of a slowdown in overseas economies and the appreciation of the yen.

Meanwhile, although global financial markets remain under heavy strain, financial conditions in Japan have continued to ease. The year-on-year rate of change in the CPI (all items less fresh food) is around 0 percent.

As for the outlook, Japan’s economic activity will remain more or less flat for the time being. The year-on-year rate of change in the CPI is expected to remain at around 0 percent for the time being.

The Bank is committed to continuing the virtually zero interest rate policy until it judges that price stability is in sight on the basis of the “understanding of medium- to long-term price stability.

…the Bank will continue to consistently make contributions as the central bank by pursuing powerful monetary easing through the comprehensive monetary easing measures…

El comunicado incluyó pronósticos de los miembros del comité de política monetaria. A continuación se presentan las medianas, en donde las cifras son variaciones % interanuales, la inflación excluye alimentos, y entre paréntesis están los pronósticos anteriores (octubre 2011):

  • Año fiscal 2011: PIB -0.4 (+0.3), inflación -0.1 (0.0)
  • Año fiscal 2012: PIB +2.0 (+2.2), inflación +0.1 (+0.1)
  • Año fiscal 2013: PIB +1.6 (+1.5), inflación +0.5 (+0.5)

(Año fiscal en Japón es de 1 abril a 31 mar).

India: Banco central mantiene tasa sin cambio (8.50%), reduce tasa de ratio de efectivo requerido (cash reserve ratio) en 50 pb (comunicado, PDF).

Comunicado del Gobernador Subbarao (PDF):

Three major considerations have informed our decision to reduce the CRR.

First, growth is decelerating. … While some slowdown in the growth of demand was the expected outcome … at this juncture, risk to growth has increased.

Second, even as headline WPI inflation is moderating, it is coming largely from a sharp deceleration in prices of seasonal food items.  In respect of other key components, particularly protein-based food items and non-food manufactured products, inflation remains high. Moreover, there are upside risks to inflation from global crude oil prices, the lingering impact of rupee depreciation, and slippage in the fiscal deficit.

[Third], that liquidity conditions have remained tight beyond the comfort zone of the Reserve Bank.  Although the Reserve Bank has conducted open market operations, and injected liquidity of over 700 billion, the structural deficit in the system has increased significantly. This could hurt credit flow to productive sectors of the economy. The large structural deficit in the system presented a strong case for injecting permanent primary liquidity into the system.

Based on the current inflation trajectory, including the fact that there is considerable suppressed inflation, it is premature to begin reducing the policy rate. The reduction in the policy rate will be conditioned by signs of a sustainable moderation in inflation. At the same time, the persistence of tight liquidity conditions could disrupt credit flow, and further exacerbate growth risks. In this context, the CRR is the most effective instrument for permanent liquidity injection over a sustained period of time. The CRR reduction can also be viewed as a reinforcement of the guidance that the interest rate cycle has peaked and that future rate actions will be towards lowering the policy interest rate.

Turquía: Banco central mantiene tasas sin cambio (5.75%) (comunicado).

Recent data releases confirm that the rebalancing between the domestic and external demand is ongoing as envisaged. Final domestic demand is decelerating and the contribution of net external demand to growth is increasing. Accordingly, the rebalancing process and the improvement in the current account deficit would continue in the forthcoming period.

The Committee has noted that annual inflation will stay at high levels in the short-term due to accumulated price increases that occurred during the final quarter of 2011. In order to prevent the potential second round effects, the Central Bank has delivered an important monetary tightening since October.

The Committee has indicated that tight monetary policy stance should be maintained for a while in order to keep inflation outlook consistent with the medium term targets. However, given the prevailing uncertainties regarding the global economy, it would be appropriate to preserve the flexibility of the monetary policy. Therefore, the impact of the measures undertaken on credit, domestic demand, and inflation expectations will be monitored closely and the amount of Turkish lira funding via one-week repo auctions will be adjusted in either direction, as needed.

América, Asia y Europa: Tasa de política monetaria, hasta 24 ene 2012 (% per annum)

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