La Fed cumplió expectativas con otro “taper” de $10 MMn

Genevieve Signoret & Patrick Signoret

En la última reunión de Ben Bernanke como presidente de la Fed, el comité de política monetaria (FOMC) anunció otra disminución en el ritmo del programa de compras de activos: -$10 MMn a $65 MMn mensuales ($35 MMn en bonos del Tesoro y $30 MMn en títulos hipotecarios). El voto fue unánime. El comunicado cambió poco con respecto al de mediados de diciembre; Real Time Economics de WSJ ilustra los cambios, como siempre.

El FOMC continuó observando condiciones mixtas en el mercado laboral y desaceleración en la recuperación del sector vivienda, pero notó aceleración en el gasto de los hogares y la inversión fija de las empresas y confirmó que la restricción fiscal pesa cada vez menos. No cambió una sola palabra de su orientación a futuro: el Comité continúa anticipando que probablemente mantendrá la tasa de fondos federales cercana a cero hasta “bastante después de que la tasa de desempleo baje de 6.5%, especialmente si la inflación proyectada permanece por debajo de la meta del Comité de 2%”.

Nuestro escenario central proyecta que la Fed continuará recortando el ritmo de estímulo en $10 MMn en cada reunión, de manera que QE3 concluya durante el tercer trimestre de este año, y que no elevará las tasas de interés de corto plazo antes del 2016.

El FOMC fue ligeramente más optimista que en diciembre con respecto a las condiciones económicas actuales:

Information received since the Federal Open Market Committee met in December indicates that growth in economic activity picked up in recent quarters. Labor market indicators were mixed but on balance showed further improvement. The unemployment rate declined but remains elevated. Household spending and business fixed investment advanced more quickly in recent months, while the recovery in the housing sector slowed somewhat. Fiscal policy is restraining economic growth, although the extent of restraint is diminishing. Inflation has been running below the Committee’s longer-run objective, but longer-term inflation expectations have remained stable.

La orientación a futuro no cambió:

To support continued progress toward maximum employment and price stability, the Committee today reaffirmed its view that a highly accommodative stance of monetary policy will remain appropriate for a considerable time after the asset purchase program ends and the economic recovery strengthens. The Committee also reaffirmed its expectation that the current exceptionally low target range for the federal funds rate of 0 to 1/4 percent will be appropriate at least as long as the unemployment rate remains above 6-1/2 percent, inflation between one and two years ahead is projected to be no more than a half percentage point above the Committee’s 2 percent longer-run goal, and longer-term inflation expectations continue to be well anchored. In determining how long to maintain a highly accommodative stance of monetary policy, the Committee will also consider other information, including additional measures of labor market conditions, indicators of inflation pressures and inflation expectations, and readings on financial developments. The Committee continues to anticipate, based on its assessment of these factors, that it likely will be appropriate to maintain the current target range for the federal funds rate well past the time that the unemployment rate declines below 6-1/2 percent, especially if projected inflation continues to run below the Committee’s 2 percent longer-run goal. When the Committee decides to begin to remove policy accommodation, it will take a balanced approach consistent with its longer-run goals of maximum employment and inflation of 2 percent.

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