La minuta de la Fed sorprendió poco

Genevieve Signoret & Patrick Signoret

La minuta de la reunión de política monetaria del FOMC del 17 y 18 de diciembre no trajo sorpresas (WSJ reporta que hubo poco impacto en mercados bursátiles). Confirmó que casi todos los participantes (incluyendo los no votantes) estuvieron de acuerdo en anunciar una ligera moderación en el ritmo de compras de activos, aunque algunos no querían comenzar el “tapering” hasta ver mejores resultados en el mercado laboral y que la inflación se acelerara, mientras que otros querían que el “tapering” fuera más agresivo.

En general la minuta confirmó nuestra perspectiva de que las reducciones de compras de activos continuarán de manera moderada para terminar en la segunda mitad del año.

Lea nuestra entrada sobre el anuncio de diciembre y, sobre la minuta, las reacciones de Tim Duy y el artículo de Binyamin Appelbaum (NYT).

Varios miembros del FOMC están preocupados por la inflación lenta, según la minuta:

Inflation continued to run noticeably below the Committee’s longer-run objective of 2 percent, but participants anticipated that it would move back toward 2 percent over time as the economic recovery strengthened and longer-run inflation expectations remained steady. Several participants suggested that some of the factors that had held down inflation recently, such as the slowing in price increases for medical care and banking services, were likely to prove transitory. Some participants suggested that inflation, while low, was unlikely to slow further, pointing to core, trimmed mean, or sticky-price inflation measures as indicative of fairly steady underlying price trends; most measures of wage gains were also steady. Nonetheless, many participants expressed concern about the deceleration in consumer prices over the past year, and a couple pointed out that a number of other advanced economies were also experiencing very low inflation. Among the costs of very low or declining inflation that were cited were its effects in raising real interest rates and debt burdens. A few participants raised the possibility that recent declines in inflation might suggest that the economic recovery was not as strong as some thought.

Tanto el staff de la Fed como el FOMC consideraba que los riesgos para la estabilidad financiera eran moderados, pero varios parecieron estar preocupados por el riesgo de burbujas en mercados accionarios:

In their discussion of potential risks, several participants commented on the rise in forward price-to-earnings ratios for some small-cap stocks, the increased level of equity repurchases, or the rise in margin credit. One pointed to the increase in issuance of leveraged loans this year and the apparent decline in the average quality of such loans. A couple of participants offered views on the role of financial stability in monetary policy decisionmaking more broadly. One proposed that the Committee analyze more explicitly the potential consequences of specific risks to the financial system for its dual-mandate objectives and take account of the possible effects of monetary policy on such risks in its assessment of appropriate policy. Another suggested that the importance of financial stability considerations in the Committee’s deliberations would likely increase over time as progress is made toward the Committee’s objectives, and that such considerations should be incorporated into forward guidance for the federal funds rate and asset purchases.

Debatieron si reducir o no el umbral de la tasa de desempleo por arriba del cual la Fed no comenzaría a elevar la tasa de política monetaria. La mayoría no quiso reducirlo.

Participants debated the advantages and disadvantages of lowering the unemployment rate threshold provided in the forward guidance. In the view of the few participants who advocated such a change, a lower threshold would be a clear signal of the Committee’s intentions and was an appropriate adjustment in light of recent labor market and inflation trends. In contrast, a few others expressed concern that any change in the threshold might be confusing and could undermine the credibility of the Committee’s forward guidance. Most were inclined to retain the current thresholds for the unemployment and inflation rates and to instead provide qualitative guidance regarding the Committee’s likely behavior after a threshold was crossed.
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