BCE se mantiene en pausa, da más indicios sobre posible LTRO

Genevieve Signoret & Patrick Signoret

El Consejo de Gobierno del Banco Central Europeo mantuvo sin cambio su tasa de política monetaria en 0.50%. El comunicado de Draghi casi no cambió. El BCE permanece preocupado por el riesgo de falta de liquidez en el mercado monetario y ayer comunicó que considerará “todas las herramientas disponibles”, incluyendo un LTRO (préstamos ilimitados de largo plazo a tasas muy bajas para bancos comerciales), para mantener líquido al mercado. Draghi observó que la tasa de inflación bajó a 1.1% en septiembre y permanecerá en niveles bajos durante los próximos meses, pero no expresó preocupación por ello. Durante la conferencia de prensa no compartió nada nuevo sobre ese tema ni sobre LTRO o la posibilidad de recortes en las tasas de interés.

Inspirándonos en lo que hace Real Time Economics (WSJ) con los comunicados de la Fed, a continuación mostramos cómo cambió el párrafo principal del comunicado de política monetaria. (El texto negro es el que permaneció igual con respecto al comunicado de septiembre.) En pocas palabras, casi no cambió. El BCE permanece preocupado por la disminución de liquidez en el mercado monetario. Las últimas palabras del párrafo, en las que Mario Draghi dijo que el Consejo de Gobierno considerará “todas las herramientas disponibles” para lidiar con cualquier falta de liquidez en el mercado monetario, fueron el cambio más importante.

Based on our regular economic and monetary analyses, we decided to keep the key ECB interest rates unchanged. Incoming information and analysis have further underpinned our previous assessment. Underlying price pressures in the euro area are expected to remain subdued over the medium term. In keeping with this picture, monetary and, in particular, credit dynamics remain subdued. Inflation expectations for the euro area continue to be firmly anchored in line with our aim of maintaining inflation rates below, but close to, 2% over the medium term. At the same time, real GDP growth in the second quarter was positive, after six quarters of negative output growth, and confidence indicators up to August September confirm the expected gradual improvement in economic activity from low levels. Our monetary policy stance continues to be geared towards maintaining the degree of monetary accommodation warranted by the outlook for price stability and promoting stable money market conditions. It thereby provides support to a gradual recovery in economic activity. Looking ahead, our monetary policy stance will remain accommodative for as long as necessary, in line with the forward guidance provided in July. The Governing Council confirms that it expects the key ECB interest rates to remain at present or lower levels for an extended period of time. This expectation continues to be based on an unchanged overall subdued outlook for inflation extending into the medium term, given the broad-based weakness in the economy and subdued monetary dynamics. In the period ahead, we will monitor all incoming information on economic and monetary developments and assess any impact on the medium-term outlook for price stability. With regard to money market conditions, these have also been influenced by a gradual reduction in excess liquidity. Repayments of funds taken up in the context of the three-year longer-term refinancing operations reflect improvements in financial market confidence, some reduction in financial market fragmentation and the ongoing deleveraging by euro area banks. We we will remain particularly attentive to the implications that these developments may have for the stance of monetary policy and are ready to consider all available instruments.

Más adelante, Draghi observó que la tasa de inflación bajó más en septiembre y permanecerá en esos niveles bajos durante los próximos meses, pero no expresó preocupación por ello.

According to Eurostat’s flash estimate, and broadly in line with expectations, euro area annual HICP inflation decreased in September 2013 to 1.1%, from 1.3% in August. On the basis of current futures prices for energy, annual inflation rates are expected to remain at such low levels in the coming months. Taking the appropriate medium-term perspective, underlying price pressures are expected to remain subdued, reflecting the broad-based weakness in aggregate demand and the modest pace of the recovery. Medium to long-term inflation expectations continue to be firmly anchored in line with price stability.

The risks to the outlook for price developments are expected to be still broadly balanced over the medium term, with upside risks relating in particular to higher commodity prices as well as stronger than expected increases in administered prices and indirect taxes, and downside risks stemming from weaker than expected economic activity.

En la conferencia de prensa se le preguntó a Draghi si la inflación lenta le preocupaba, pero simplemente repitió lo que dijo en su comunicado.

Tampoco compartió nada nuevo sobre un posible recorte en tasas de interés o sobre la probabilidad y fecha aproximada de otro LTRO (préstamos ilimitados de largo plazo a tasas muy bajas para bancos comerciales). La siguiente fue una respuesta típica:

You are asking in an indirect way whether we discussed an interest rate cut which would narrow the corridor. There was a discussion and, as last time, some governors observed that improvements in the economy would not justify this discussion but other governors believed that the discussion was warranted. But in the end we decided to leave interest rates at the present level. Having said that, on the broader developments in liquidity let me repeat what I said in the European Parliament, because it is quite telling. I cannot find the precise quote, but basically I said that we are ready to use all available instruments, including a LTRO (longer-term refinancing operation), to ensure that developments in short-term money market rates are in line with our medium-term assessment of price stability. We have a vast array of instruments to this end and we do not rule out any options in order to do what is needed in the most appropriate way.

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