Ni victoria de Merkel ni estabilidad de gobierno están asegurados

Genevieve Signoret & Patrick Signoret

A dos semanas de las elecciones generales alemanas, el CDU/CSU, partido de centroderecha al que pertenece Merkel, sigue cómodamente en primer lugar de las encuestas, con 41% de las preferencias. Le sigue el Partido Socialdemócrata (PSD), centroizquierda, 15 puntos atrás. Con los liberales del FDP, socio del CDU/CSU en la coalición de gobierno actual, actualmente logrando el mínimo de 5% necesario para obtener escaños en el parlamento, la coalición actual podría mantener la mayoría en la cámara baja. El único partido anti-euro, el AfD, no sube de 3-4%, resultado que lo dejaría fuera del parlamento. (Infratest-Dimap, Forschungsgruppe Wahlen.)

Sin embargo, Open Europe advierte que las encuestas electorales alemanas son poco fiables y que AfD podría terminar dentro y FDP fuera. También describe un escenario posible en el cual los partidos de centroizquierda e izquierda se unen para sacar a Merkel del gobierno. Wolfgang Münchau en FT explica que cualquier resultado dejará un gobierno inestable, por lo que no debemos esperar que las elecciones aporten claridad o  decisiones rápidas de Alemania con respecto a la crisis de la zona del euro.

Open Europe:

The latest polls put the CDU/CSU at 41% and the SPD on 26% – with 59% of voters supporting Merkel as Chancellor compared to 30% who support the SPD’s Steinbrück. With the SPD and Greens still far off an absolute majority as a block, and with the FDP – Merkel’s current junior coalition partner polling at 5-6% ( the Bundestag threshold is 5%), it may seem as if Merkel has bagged it, either as part of a CDU/CSU-FDP coalition, or a CDU/CSU-SPD grand coalition.

However, this race isn’t over yet. If the FDP fails to make the 5% threshold, a lot can happen. The FDP could fail for two reasons: AfD could be nicking more votes from the FDP than expected, and ironically, the FDP scoring well in the Bavarian State elections on 15 September, could divert strategic CDU votes away from the FDP (voters who might vote strategically may have a false sense of confidence in FDP’s chances).

With the FDP out, the CDU/CSU is unlikely to get an absolute majority of Bundestag seats of its own, so it all becomes a matter of which constellation can reach a relative majority.

Enter Die Linke. The political divide between SPD-Greens and Die Linke is far too wide for them to actual joining forces in a coalition – in some SPD circles, Die Linke is, frankly, considered to be full of nutters. However, these parties do have one common interest: get rid of Merkel. So instead of SPD or Greens entering a very messy coalition arrangement with CDU/CSU (which no one wants, except the voters), they can strike a dirty deal with Die Linke whereby the former offer its passive support in the Bundestag on a policy-by-policy basis. A minority government with Die Linke’s blessing.

Wolfgang Münchau:

I do not believe that the SPD would form a three-party coalition of the left right away. To do so would be dishonest after the promises the party has made. This leaves as the two most probable scenarios either an unstable government of the centre-right, which has no majority in the upper house, or an unstable grand coalition, which could fall apart at any moment. Neither might survive a full term.

What does this mean for the rest of Europe? In the first scenario, the German government will have even less room for manoeuvre in the eurozone crisis. A grand coalition may look more pro-European – but be careful what you wish for. Gridlock may swiftly return as a permanent threat of new elections hangs over such a coalition. Soon we might hear again that we have to wait until after the next German elections.

The only scenario in which you can see any form of stability is one where both the AfD and the FDP win more than 5 per cent of the votes, the threshold for parliamentary representation. Then the Bundestag would have six parties and neither the CDU and the FDP, nor the SPD, Greens and the Left would have an absolute majority. In that case, the grand coalition would be the only option – and it would be stable. None of the partners would have an incentive to leave. It would be similar to the grand coalition of Ms Merkel’s first term in 2005-09. The problem with that is long-term. The AfD might become a stronger force, pushing the CDU to a more eurosceptic position.

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