BCE tiene sesgo hacia mayor relajamiento

Genevieve Signoret & Patrick Signoret

En su comunicado de política monetaria la semana pasada, el presidente del Banco Central Europeo (BCE), Mario Draghi, describió las condiciones de la zona del euro como débiles y desinflacionarias. Durante la conferencia de prensa, dijo que el banco central tiene un sesgo hacia un recorte en tasas de interés.

Pasajes del comunicado y conferencia de prensa:

Underlying price pressures in the euro area are expected to remain subdued over the medium term. In keeping with this picture, monetary and, in particular, credit dynamics remain subdued. Inflation expectations for the euro area continue to be firmly anchored in line with our aim of maintaining inflation rates below, but close to, 2% over the medium term. At the same time, real GDP growth in the second quarter was positive, after six quarters of negative output growth, and confidence indicators up to August confirm the expected gradual improvement in economic activity from low levels.

[…] The Governing Council confirms that it expects the key ECB interest rates to remain at present or lower levels for an extended period of time. This expectation continues to be based on an unchanged overall subdued outlook for inflation extending into the medium term, given the broad-based weakness in the economy and subdued monetary dynamics.

[…] The risks surrounding the economic outlook for the euro area continue to be on the downside. Recent developments in global money and financial market conditions and related uncertainties may have the potential to negatively affect economic conditions. Other downside risks include higher commodity prices in the context of renewed geopolitical tensions, weaker than expected global demand and slow or insufficient implementation of structural reforms in euro area countries.

En respuesta a una pregunta durante la conferencia de prensa, explícitamente dijo que el banco central tiene un sesgo hacia un recorte en tasas de interés:

Question: There is no change in the reaction function. Does that mean that, essentially, you would do nothing different if there was no forward guidance?

Draghi: No, because we basically said that, looking at the medium-term outlook for inflation, way beyond the short term, we wanted to make it clear that we have a downward bias in interest rates for an extended period of time. I think that is the essence and is something we have never said before. So the very fact of saying it is itself a very powerful clarification of our reaction function.

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