Minuta FOMC y comentarios Bernanke no disminuirán incertidumbre

Genevieve Signoret & Patrick Signoret

La minuta de la reunión de hace tres semanas del Comité de Mercado Abierto de la Reserva Federal (FOMC), publicada el miércoles, reveló grandes divisiones internas sobre cuándo y cómo frenar el programa de compras de activos de la Fed (NYT, FT). Algunos miembros del comité de política monetaria preferirían que QE3 terminaran este año, mientras que otros piensan que es demasiado temprano para siquiera hablar del fin del programa. Unas horas después de la publicación de la minuta, Bernanke hizo comentarios percibidos como dovish (expansiva, laxa, en tono) –favorables al estímulo monetario–, reiterando que las tasas de interés permanecerán bajas durante mucho tiempo después del fin de QE3 y afirmando que el mercado laboral sigue bastante débil (BI, WSJ). Tim Duy hace un recorrido completo de ambos eventos y concluye que todavía espera que el ritmo de QE3 sea disminuido en septiembre y que su incertidumbre al respecto permanece igual de alta que antes. La mayoría de los analistas citados en Money Beat de WSJ piensan que los comentarios de Bernanke no representan ningún giro significativo de política monetaria.

Conclusión de Tim Duy:

Bottom Line: There is enough material today for everyone to walk away believing their priors. The mass confusion within the FOMC minutes alone suggest substantial factions on boths sides of the taper/don’t taper debate. That said, I think it is difficult to walk away from today’s events with a sense of certainty about the September taper. But I also think that the minutes suggest that someone brought a divided FOMC together around a common plan – a plan to put the taper on the table sooner than later but attempt to walk a tightrope with respect to interest rate policy. And I can’t see how that someone is anyone but Bernanke.

NYT y FT describen los puntos de vista diferentes dentro del FOMC y explican el lenguaje que utiliza la Fed. Aquí NYT:

But “about half” of the 19 officials who participated in the policy meeting said in an internal survey beforehand “that it likely would be appropriate to end asset purchases late this year,” according to an account of the meeting that the Fed released Wednesday after a standard delay.

The account does not imply an earlier endpoint to the bond-buying program. Only 12 of the 19 officials vote each year, and proponents of a later end date still command a majority of the votes. Moreover, officials have said repeatedly that the timing will depend on economic conditions, in particular on evidence that the labor market outlook has improved substantially.

That is a standard the economy has yet to meet, at least to the satisfaction of the majority that backs the bond-buying program, known as quantitative easing. The account underscored that a decision to decelerate later this year still hangs in the balance.

“Many members indicated that further improvement in the outlook for the labor market would be required before it would be appropriate to slow the pace of asset purchases,” the account said. “Some added that they would, as well, need to see more evidence that the projected acceleration in economic activity would occur, before reducing the pace of asset purchases.”

FT:

According to the minutes, “several” voting members of the rate-setting Federal Open Market Committee thought asset purchases should slow down soon, but “many” wanted to see a further improvement in the jobs market first.

Crucially, some of those members said they would need to see an acceleration in the economy as well as more jobs growth before starting tapering. With the economy weak now because of cuts to public spending, that would almost certainly delay a slowdown in asset purchases to the late autumn or winter.

In the jargon of Fedspeak, “several” is likely to mean three or four out of the 12 voting members of the FOMC, while “many” would cover most of the remainder. That suggests a majority on the committee want more data before tapering.

Offsetting that, however, “about half” of the broader group of 19 participants at the FOMC – including those who are not voting this year – wanted to end asset purchases altogether by the end of the year.

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