El gobierno de coalición luso está en riesgo

Genevieve Signoret & Patrick Signoret

El primer ministro Pedro Passos Coelho y el líder del partido aliado de coalición, Paulo Portas, están en pláticas para intentar llegar a un acuerdo que mantenga viva a la coalición gobernante y evite la necesidad de disolver el parlamento y convocar elecciones anticipadas (El País, Bloomberg). Open Europe tiene un análisis completo de la situación, incluyendo contexto y escenarios. La crisis política está poniendo en duda la capacidad del gobierno portugués de cumplir sus promesas de austeridad y hacen aún más probable que Portugal requiera apoyo adicional cuando su programa de rescate actual termine en junio 2014, según analistas citados en WSJ.

El País:

El primer ministro portugués y líder del conservador PSD, Pedro Passos Coelho, y el ministro de Asuntos Exteriores, Paulo Portas, secretario general del CDS-PP (centro derecha) están dispuestos a dar con la fórmula mágica que permita que la coalición gubernamental no se desintegre después de la explosiva dimisión de Portas, en principio “irrevocable” y hecha pública el martes con un comunicado que sacudió la vida política del país. Ayer, los dos dirigentes se reunieron en el Palacio de São Bento, residencia oficial del primer ministro.

La incertidumbre que siguió al anunció de Portas, con el consiguiente riesgo de quiebra del Gobierno y de inestabilidad parlamentaria (el partido de Passos Coelho queda en minoría en la Asamblea de la República) arrastró a los mercados a un día negro: la bolsa se hundió y cayó en un 5.3% y los intereses de los bonos portugueses a 10 años se dispararon por la mañana llegando a los 8%. Al final, se quedaron –por ahora- en un 7,45%, un porcentaje al que no se llegaba desde noviembre de 2011.

[…] Por su parte, la oposición reclama elecciones anticipadas y el presidente de la República, Aníbal Cavaco Silva, del PSP, ha marcado para hoy una entrevista con el primer ministro a fin de aclarar el embrollo político. A ella, Passos Coelho espera acudir con un acuerdo bajo el brazo.

Open Europe:

The Portuguese government is on the rocks. The junior coalition partner, the People’s Party (CDS-PP), will hold a meeting this afternoon to determine whether to continue supporting the government. If CDS-PP withdraws support in parliament, elections seem inevitable – although they could be delayed for some months. Such a move would seriously hamper Portugal’s economic reform programme, which is already off track. Portugal has only met its deficit targets due to one-off measures while competitiveness adjustments have slowed and contingent liabilities remain a hidden risk. With the country on the cusp of an unsustainable debt burden any delays would likely be the final straw which pushes Portugal into needing some form of further assistance.

[…] The key aspect is not whether CDS-PP ministers pull out of government, but whether the party withdraws its support in parliament.

CDS-PP pulls out of government, but maintains its support in parliament. Passos Coelho’s government can stay in office with the same majority, after a cabinet reshuffle. However, this would be a tenuous arrangement given the significant austerity which still needs to be implemented. It is of course possible that Portas’s move was a tactical one, looking to secure more influence as his electoral support falls ahead of this weekend’s party conference.

CDS-PP withdraws its support in parliament. The government would lose its majority. Passos Coelho could then decide to either go ahead with a minority government or step down. It is not entirely unusual for Portugal to have minority governments. The government led by former Socialist Prime Minister José Socrates after the 2009 elections was a minority government, for instance – but was forced to an early resignation after parliament rejected an austerity package in March 2011. Another Socialist Prime Minister, António Guterres, uniquely managed to lead a minority government through an entire four-year parliamentary term between 1995 and 1999. That said, the situation is much tougher now given the crisis, and keeping a stable minority government will be a very difficult proposition.

[…] What happens after the government falls?

The Portuguese President Aníbal Cavaco Silva holds talks with the political parties holding seats in parliament. After that, he can either try to appoint a new Prime Minister or dissolve parliament and call new elections. Under Portuguese law, new elections must take place at least 55 days after parliament is dissolved. In the meantime, Passos Coelho’s government would stay on as caretaker.

Who would win if elections were held?

The Socialist party has opened a large lead by all accounts, up to 12% in some polls. However, it still looks short of the majority needed to govern alone – in the previous elections the Social Democratic Party secured 38% of the vote but only 108 seats (although as noted above a minority government is difficult but not impossible). However, despite initially supporting the reform programme the Socialist Party has become increasingly vocal against austerity and it is unclear if they would stick to the reform programme, if they came into power. This would throw up serious problems, breaking the fragile cash-for-reform bargain which has been in place over the past few years in Portugal and in the eurozone more widely.

[…] Under the optimistic scenario forecast by the EU/IMF/ECB Troika, Portuguese debt is still expected to peak at 124% of GDP in 2014. Any delays will likely see this rise quickly, especially with growth already underperforming.

Portuguese ten year borrowing costs have already shot up a staggering 1.5% since Gaspar’s resignation, reaching close to 8%. This highlights the fragility of the economic situation. Only a month ago, there was widespread talk of Portugal returning to the markets ahead of schedule – now it is difficult to see how it will exit its bailout programme in spring 2014 without any further assistance (the ECB’s bond buying programme, the OMT, still remains the most likely candidate).

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