Bernanke explica y defiende las bajas tasas de interés de largo plazo

Genevieve Signoret & Patrick Signoret

Bernanke explicó a detalle su argumento a favor de mantener bajas las tasas de interés de largo plazo. Su argumento principal: mantener tasas de interés bajas ahora evita que se descarrile la recuperación económica, lo cual a su vez mantendría las tasas de interés (y de crecimiento) bajas durante mucho más tiempo (más en WSJ). También, Jon Hilsenrath en Real Time Economics de WSJ se imaginó lo que Bernanke pensaba mientras daba su discurso.

WSJ:

It would be “quite costly” to the U.S. economy, and possibly counterproductive, for the central bank to pull back too soon, he said in a speech late Friday in San Francisco, amplifying a message he delivered to Congress earlier in the week.

At the same time, Mr. Bernanke also sought to reassure the public that the Fed is better prepared to find and address financial instability than it was before the 2008 crisis.

As part of that message, he made clear that interest rates wouldn’t stay low forever. He took the unusual step of discussing forecasts of long-term rates, sharing projections that show long-term rates could rise from about 2% today to 4% or 5% by 2017 as the economy strengthens. The move appeared in part to be a signal to markets not to become complacent about low rates.

[…] On the one hand, Mr. Bernanke sought to soothe those who fear the Fed could raise interest rates or tighten credit in other ways sooner than expected. On the other, he also tried to reassure critics who doubt the wisdom of the Fed’s current policy path.

Jon Hilsenrath en Real Time Economics de WSJ se imagina lo que pasa por la mente de Bernanke al dar su discurso. Un ejemplo:

WHAT HE SAID: “One might argue that the right response to these risks is to tighten monetary policy, raising long-term interest rates with the aim of forestalling any undesirable buildup of risk. I hope my discussion this evening has convinced you that, at least in economic circumstances of the sort that prevail today, such an approach could be quite costly and might well be counterproductive from the standpoint of promoting financial stability … premature rate increases would carry a high risk of short-circuiting the recovery.”

WHAT HE MEANT: Just in case you didn’t get it when I testified before Congress this week, I am absolutely sticking to my plans to keep interest rates low. Don’t get too freaked out by the debate playing out.

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