Fitch rebajó calificación de deuda de Japón

Genevieve Signoret & Patrick Signoret

Fitch rebajó la calificación de deuda soberana de Japón en un escalón a A+, con perspectiva negativa. La calificación de deuda soberana en moneda extranjera fue reducida en dos escalones al mismo nivel y también con perspectiva negativa. A pesar de la flexibilidad que tiene Japón para financiarse, Fitch anticipa que la deuda bruta gubernamental alcanzará 239% del PIB a finales de 2012, y le preocupa el bajo (o negativo) crecimiento del PIB nominal del país (Fitch, Bloomberg).

El astronómico tamaño (absoluto y relativo) de la deuda pública de de Japón presenta un pequeño pero grave riesgo para la economía global en el mediano plazo. El lector recordará que, en nuestra edición de abril de Timón Trimestral, para poder construir nuestros tres escenarios debimos asumir explícitamente que, en el horizonte de pronóstico (2012–2013), el público inversionista no perdería fe en que Japón pueda y quiera cumplir con sus obligaciones de deuda.

A+ es la quinta calificación más alta y está seis escalones arriba de la calificación basura. Las otras dos grandes calificadoras tienen a Japón en la cuarta calificación más alta con perspectiva negativa.

Bloomberg:

Japan’s sovereign-rating cut by Fitch Ratings escalated pressure on lawmakers to double the sales tax, with the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development warning the nation’s debt is heading into “uncharted territory.”

The local-currency rating was reduced one step, and foreign-currency grade two levels, to A+, the fifth-highest ranking, Fitch said in a statement yesterday. The Paris-based OECD said separately that boosting the 5 percent consumption levy is a “top priority.”

A surge in demand for Japanese government bonds that sent 10-year yields to the lowest level since 2003 this month is masking the risks from rising debt. Prime Minister Yoshihiko Noda has failed to persuade opposition lawmakers to support his legislation, leaving gross public debt poised to reach 223 percent of gross domestic product next year, the OECD said.

[…] Fitch went one step further than Moody’s Investors Service and Standard & Poor’s, which both have Japan on their fourth- highest rankings. Fitch and S&P both have a negative outlook for the nation’s grade.

[…]So far, Japan’s worsening credit score hasn’t led to a drop in bond prices, with yields on benchmark 10-year debt falling to 0.815 percent on May 18, the lowest since 2003.

Fitch:

Japan’s gross general government debt is projected to hit 239% of GDP by end-2012, by far the highest for any Fitch-rated sovereign. This debt ratio would also have risen 61pp since the global financial crisis. This compares with a median of 39pp for OECD economies and 8pp for ‘A’ range sovereigns. Japan is less of an outlier when account is taken of its large pile of sovereign financial assets (worth about 80% of GDP on Fitch’s calculations), but net indebtedness is still rising strongly.

Japan’s Fiscal Management Strategy envisages declines in the government debt/GDP ratio only from FY21. Fitch regards this as a slow pace of consolidation given the scale of Japan’s debt. Moreover, Japan’s consolidation strategy is subject to political risk. The government’s key revenue-raising plan is to hike the consumption tax to 10% by FY15 from 5% now. The measure is back-loaded (planned to start in FY14) and remains highly politically controversial.

Nonetheless, the Japanese sovereign retains exceptional financing flexibility and can fund itself at low nominal yields, a factor Fitch recognises as a support to the ratings. Funding flexibility is further reinforced by the role of the broader public sector in channelling savings to the sovereign: about half of government debt is held within the broader public sector. This funding strength is based on the deep pool of Japanese private sector savings, invested with strong “home bias”. The Japanese yen is a global reserve currency and exhibits safe haven characteristics.

However, Fitch considers that this private sector savings behaviour may itself contribute to the economy’s persistent deflationary equilibrium. The economy has experienced recurring deflation since 2001 and real GDP growth lags high-income peers. Nominal GDP of JPY468.6trn in 2011 was 0.2% lower than in 1991. Weak nominal GDP growth threatens to undermine fiscal solvency in the longer term.

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