Minuta BoE: 2 miembros a favor de más estímulo, pero preocupan precios de petróleo

Patrick Signoret

El Banco de Inglaterra publicó la minuta de su reunión de 7-8 marzo, en la cual dejó sin cambio su tasa de interés (en 0.50%) y el tamaño de su programa de compra de activos (en £325 MMn).

Dos de sus miembros querían más estimulo (negritas son nuestras):

Overall, the Committee judged that the recent data had evolved in line with its expectations and that there had been little change to the balance of risks to UK activity and inflation. Most members saw no reason to change either Bank Rate or the quantity of asset purchases agreed at the Committee’s previous meeting. Two members continued to think that a larger monetary stimulus was warranted to reduce the risk that persistently weak growth would damage the future supply capacity of the economy. In their view, policy should be loosened further to stimulate demand quickly, but the stimulus could then be withdrawn were it to become clear that there was a significant risk of inflation rising above target in the medium term.

…

Regarding the stock of asset purchases, seven members of the Committee (the Governor, Charles Bean, Paul Tucker, Ben Broadbent, Spencer Dale, Paul Fisher and Martin Weale) voted in favour of the proposition. Two members of the Committee (David Miles and Adam Posen) voted against, preferring to increase the size of the asset purchase programme by a further £25 billion to a total of £350 billion.

Sin embargo, Claire Jones de Financial Times (blog Money Supply) argumenta que el hecho de que dos miembros querían más estímulo no significa que la probabilidad de que se extienda el programa de activos en la siguiente reunión sea mayor, pues la minuta también reveló que el comité está preocupado por los precios de petróleo.

But don’t let that mislead you into thinking further asset purchases are on the way. These are certainly not a more dovish set of minutes. In fact they do much to highlight the Bank’s concern over the recent rise in oil prices.

Though the risks stemming from the eurozone and high bank funding costs were duly noted, the minutes cited the 12 per cent rise in the price of Brent crude as “the major development during the month”.

…

The minutes show that committee does not necessarily believe this is a major upside risk to inflation, with the impact on CPI depending on the balance of the opposing effects on growth and prices, along with other economic developments. They also note that the committee judged that there had been “little change” to the balance of risks to inflation and growth over the past month.

More QE in May, therefore, cannot be ruled out.

But it has certainly not become more likely, despite Mr Posen’s and Mr Miles’s dissenting votes.

El programa de compras de activos fue extendido por última vez en febrero, cuando se decidió aumentar el tamaño en £50 MMn a £325 MMn. Estas compras terminarán de llevarse a cabo a principios de abril, cuando se reune el comité de política monetaria (5 de abril).