India: sin cambio en tasas; sesgo hacia reducirlas en el futuro

Patrick Signoret

El Banco de la Reserva de India dejó sin cambio su tasa de política monetaria en 10.50%, como esperábamos, y sugirió que el siguiente cambio en tasas probablemente será una reducción.

A continuación algunos pasajes de su comunicado (pdf) (negritas son nuestras).

La semana pasada había reducido la tasa mínima de reservas de efectivo (cash reserve ratio, CRR).

The Reserve Bank reduced the CRR by 75 basis points from 5.5 per cent to 4.75 per cent effective March 10, 2012. This measure was necessitated ahead of this scheduled Mid-Quarter Review to address the persistent structural liquidity deficit beyond the Reserve Bank’s comfort level, which would have further worsened during the week of March 12-16 due to advance tax outflows.

Anticipa que el crecimiento será lento en economías emergentes y que el crecimiento de India en T1 2012 será mejor que el crecimiento muy lento de T4 2011, y ve riesgos al alza para la inflación:

While the recovery in the US has been progressing, economic activity in the euro area has contracted. Although abundant liquidity injection by the ECB has mitigated the immediate pressures in financial markets, a credible solution to the sovereign debt problem is yet to emerge. Sluggish global economic activity, uncertainty in the euro area and rising crude oil prices will hamper growth prospects of [emerging and developing economies].

On the domestic front, while most indicators suggest that the economy is slowing down, the performance in Q4 of 2011-12 is expected to be better than that in Q3. Inflation has broadly evolved along the projected trajectory so far. However, upside risks to inflation have increased from the recent surge in crude oil prices, fiscal slippage and rupee depreciation. Besides, there continues to be significant suppressed inflation in fuel, fertilizer and power as administered prices do not fully reflect the costs of production.

(En India, T4 de 2011-12 es T1 de 2012 para nosotros.)

En cuanto a su política monetaria en el futuro, indica que los próximos cambios serán bajas en las tasas, aunque está al pendiente de los riesgos al alza para la inflación:

Recent growth-inflation dynamics have prompted the Reserve Bank to indicate that no further tightening is required and that future actions will be towards lowering the rates. However, notwithstanding the deceleration in growth, inflation risks remain, which will influence both the timing and magnitude of future rate actions.

Abajo ilustramos la evolución de la política monetaria de 10 bancos centrales que seguimos de cerca:

América, Asia y Europa: Tasa de política monetaria, hasta 15 mar 2012 (% per annum)
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