Williams (Fed San Francisco): El estímulo monetario debe continuar

Patrick Signoret

John Williams, Presidente de la Fed de San Francisco y miembro votante del FOMC, habló de la política monetaria en general en un discurso con énfasis educativo, pero dejó claro que el estímulo monetario debe continuar “a todo lo que da”.

Discurso: HTML, PDF.

Aquí hay algunos pasajes en donde explica que, después de la crisis, la tasa natural de desempleo va a ser, durante varios años, más alta de lo normal (negritas son nuestras):

In this regard, the Fed’s maximum employment goal fundamentally differs from the price stability goal. In the long run, inflation is determined by the actions the central bank takes—in other words, by monetary policy. So we Fed policymakers can set an inflation target we think best. But the natural rate of unemployment is not determined by the central bank. Rather, the natural rate reflects market forces and tends to shift as labor market frictions change. According to the FOMC statement that I mentioned before, quote, “The maximum level of employment is largely determined by nonmonetary factors that affect the structure and dynamics of the labor market,” and “These factors may change over time.”

Unfortunately, there is no way to know exactly what the natural rate of unemployment is. It’s not a number you can look up in a statistical table. In fact, the natural rate is the subject of intensive economic research and debate. Economists must estimate it using economic or statistical models. In addition, because it fluctuates over time due to changes in labor force demographics and other factors, economists must regularly refine these estimates as new data come in. As a result, each FOMC participant estimates the natural rate of unemployment for him or herself, and makes policy judgments accordingly.

Typical estimates of the current natural rate of unemployment tend to range between 6 and 7 percent. These estimates are higher than usual because of the damage the recent recession did to the efficient functioning of the labor market.

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What does this tell us about where monetary policy should be now? Inflation in 2012 and 2013 is likely to come in around 1½ percent, below the FOMC’s 2 percent target. And clearly, with unemployment at 8.3 percent, we are very far from maximum employment. At the San Francisco Fed, our forecast is that the unemployment rate will remain well over 7 percent for several more years.

[…]

This is a situation in which there’s no conflict between maximum employment and price stability. With regard to both of the Fed’s mandates, it’s vital that we keep the monetary policy throttle wide open. This will help lower unemployment and raise inflation back toward levels consistent with our mandates. And we want to do so quickly to minimize total economic damage. The longer we miss our objectives, the larger the cumulative loss to the economy.

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