Bernanke: la Fed no va a tolerar alta inflación

Genevieve Signoret & Patrick Signoret

En testimonio ante el Congreso, Bernanke fue cauteloso con respecto a la situación económica. Expresó preocupación por el déficit de largo plazo pero pidió no impedir la recuperación en el corto plazo. También rechazó que la Fed vaya a tolerar inflación alta a cambio de una reducción en el desempleo.

Cautela respecto a la economía:

While conditions have certainly improved over this period, the pace of the recovery has been frustratingly slow, particularly from the perspective of the millions of workers who remain unemployed or underemployed. Moreover, the sluggish expansion has left the economy vulnerable to shocks.
Fortunately, over the past few months, indicators of spending, production, and job market activity have shown some signs of improvement; and, in economic projections just released, Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) participants indicated that they expect somewhat stronger growth this year than in 2011. The outlook remains uncertain, however, and close monitoring of economic developments will remain necessary.

La situación de los hogares, fundamental para el crecimiento, no ha mejorado mucho:

As is often the case, the ability and willingness of households to spend will be an important determinant of the pace at which the economy expands in coming quarters. Although real consumer spending rose moderately last quarter, households continue to face significant headwinds.

Los lastres para los hogares incluyen: condiciones de crédito restrictivas, baja confianza del consumidor comparada con niveles históricos, y un panorama de empleo preocupante (alta proporción de desempleados de largo plazo) que mejora muy lentamente:

Particularly troubling is the unusually high level of long-term unemployment: More than 40 percent of the unemployed have been jobless for more than six months, roughly double the fraction during the economic expansion of the previous decade.

Por otra parte, en el sector empresarial ha habido mejores noticias:

In contrast to the household sector, the business sector has been a relative bright spot in the current recovery. Manufacturing production has increased 15 percent since its trough, and capital spending by businesses has expanded briskly over the past two years, driven in part by the need to replace aging equipment and software. If business confidence continues to improve, U.S. firms should be well positioned to increase both capital spending and hiring: Larger businesses are still able to obtain credit at historically low interest rates, and corporate balance sheets are strong. And, though many smaller businesses continue to face difficulties in obtaining credit, surveys indicate that credit conditions have begun to improve modestly for those firms as well.

Argumenta que el reducir el déficit de largo plazo y el mantener el estímulo –o al menos evitar la austeridad– en el corto plazo, no sólo son políticas compatibles, sino que se refuerzan entre sí:

Even as fiscal policymakers address the urgent issue of fiscal sustainability, they should take care not to unnecessarily impede the current economic recovery. Fortunately, the two goals of achieving long-term fiscal sustainability and avoiding additional fiscal headwinds for the current recovery are fully compatible–indeed, they are mutually reinforcing. On the one hand, a more robust recovery will lead to lower deficits and debt in coming years. On the other hand, a plan that clearly and credibly puts fiscal policy on a path to sustainability could help keep longer term interest rates low and improve household and business confidence, thereby supporting improved economic performance today.

Al ser cuestionado, Bernanke negó que la Fed vaya a tolerar inflación alta para reducir el desempleo (Bloomberg):

“We are not seeking higher inflation,” Bernanke said yesterday in response to questioning from Republican Representative Paul Ryan of Wisconsin, chairman of the House Budget Committee. “We do not want higher inflation and we’re not tolerating higher inflation.”
Bernanke replied to Ryan’s suggestion that the Fed might be prepared to allow inflation to exceed its goal to fulfill the second part of its congressional mandate, which is to promote maximum employment.
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