Watch the ECB and PMIs

Genevieve Signoret

Macro Views

Events in red are those most likely to shake markets.

Monday 1

  • Global: Markit manufacturing PMIs (Nov).
  • China: NBS manufacturing PMI (Nov). The Markit PMI showed that the manufacturing sector in China did not grow in November. Will the NBS manufacturing PMI follow the same trend? Consensus: 50.5 (from 50.8 in Oct).
  • Japan: Inflation expectations implicit in bond yields (Jul).
  • Korea: Foreign trade (Nov).
  • India: Monetary policy meeting.
  • USA: Fed speech: Fischer and Plosser. ISM manufacturing PMI (Nov). The Markit PMI showed a slowdown in November. We expect that the ISM manufacturing PMI will confirm this. Consensus: 57.9 (from 59.0 in Oct).
  • Brazil: Foreign trade (Nov).
  • Mexico: IMEF manufacturing and nonmanufacturing PMI (Nov).

Tuesday 2

  • Korea: Consumer prices (Nov).
  • USA: Light vehicle sales (Nov).
  • Brazil: Industrial production (Oct).
  • Mexico: Banxico survey of professional forecasters (Nov).

Wednesday 3

  • Global: Markit services PMIs (Nov).
  • China: NBS nonmanufacturing PMI (Nov).
  • Turkey: Consumer prices (Nov).
  • Euro Area: GDP (Q3, second estimate). Consensus: No change at 0.2% q/q.
  • USA: ISM nonmanufacturing PMI (Nov), Beige Book.
  • Brazil: Monetary policy meeting. In their last meeting, the Copom decided to raise their monetary policy rate by 25bp. The Q3 GDP results were published this week, showing a growth of barely 0.1% q/q; whereas October inflation rates reached 6.4% y/y. TransEconomics: +25bp to 11.50%.

Thursday 4

  • Korea: GDP (Q3, final).
  • Euro Area: Monetary policy meeting. The ECB has been signaling the possibility of buying government bonds. Although we don’t expect this decision to be announced on Thursday, we’ll parse the statement and watch Draghi’s Q-A period looking for hints as to its current thinking on the idea of buying government bonds.
  • UK: Monetary policy meeting.  In its last meeting, the Bank of England left unchanged their Bank rate at 0.5% and their asset purchase program at £375 billion. TransEconomics: no change.
  • USA: Unemployment claims (Nov 29).
  • Mexico: Inegi manufacturing PMI (Nov).

Friday 5

  • USA: Commercial bank lending (Nov), nonfarm payrolls and unemployment rate (Nov), consumer credit (Oct), foreign trade (Oct). Consensus: nonfarm payrolls change, +225K (from +214K in Oct); unemployment rate: no change at 5.8%.
  • Brazil: Consumer prices (Nov).
  • Mexico: Monetary policy meeting, consumer confidence (Nov). We detected a dovish tilt in last Banxico’s Inflation Report. We expect the monetary policy rate to remain unchanged. Consensus and TransEconomics: rate unchanged from 3.00%.
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