Peña Nieto cabinet, Iran–P5+1 talks, US GDP revision, OPEC summit, BoJ minutes, EZ CPI
23 nov 2014
Next week in detail
Events in red are those most likely to shake markets.
- Mexico: Ayotzinapa crisis. We expect President Peña Nieto to make cabinet changes to cope with discontent and a crumbling international image and thus ensure that the crisis doesn’t block or slow down reform-motivated new investment.
- Global: Deadline for Iran and P5+1 to reach long-term deal on Iran’s nuclear program. We do not expect the P5+1 to reach an agreement on a long term deal, rather we think negotiations will continue after the current provisional deal is extended with a few small additions.
- USA: Markit services PMI (Nov, flash).
- Mexico: Unemployment rate (Oct), consumer prices (H1 Nov).
- Japan: Monetary policy meeting minutes (Oct 31). At this meeting the Bank of Japan decided to accelerate the pace of increase in the monetary base from ¥60–70 Bn to ¥80 Bn and to triple its asset purchase program. Unlike the April 2013 vote to implement the qualitative and quantitative easing program, which was unanimous, this vote was tight (5-4).
- USA: S&P/Case-Shiller house prices (Sep), FHFA house prices (Sep), GDP (Q3, second estimate), corporate profits (Q3), Conference Board consumer confidence (Nov). Consensus: 3.2%. q/q saar (from 3.5% in the first estimate).
- Mexico: Balance of payments (Q3).
- UK: GDP (Q3, second estimate).
- USA: Durable goods orders (Oct), personal income, consumption and saving (Oct), PCE inflation (Oct). This week’s Core CPI was above consensus. Watch how core PCE inflation—the Fed’s favorite—behaves.
- Mexico: Foreign trade (Oct).
- Global: OPEC ordinary meeting in Vienna, Austria. The OPEC will decide whether to cut oil prices to bring prices back up or keep oil production.
- Euro Area: Money supply and commercial bank lending (Oct). Although the M3 money supply has been accelerating in the last few months, commercial bank lending has been contracting since 2012. Consensus: M3 money supply, 2.6% y/y (from 2.5% in Sep).
- Germany: Unemployment rate (Oct), consumer prices (Nov, flash). Germany’s inflation serve as a preview for the Euro Area number due out later in the week. Consensus 0.6% y/y (from 0.8% in Sep).
- USA: Unemployment claims (Nov 22).
- Mexico: Capacity utilization (Sep).
- Japan: Unemployment rate (Oct), consumer prices (Oct). Consensus: 3.0% y/y (from 3.2% in Sep).
- Korea: Industrial production (Oct).
- Turkey: Foreign trade (Oct).
- Euro Area: Unemployment rate (Oct), consumer prices (Nov, flash). Inflation has been dangerously low in the Euro Area. In October, it went up to 0.4% from 0.3%. Consensus: 0.3% (from 0.4% in Oct).
- USA: U. of Michigan consumer confidence and inflation expectations (Nov, final).
- Brazil: GDP (Q3). Last quarter in Brazil, GDP contracted, while inflation hovered above the upper limit of the central bank’s target band. Consensus: 0.1% q/q (from –0.6% in Q2).
- Mexico: Federal government income and spending (Oct).
- 23 November 2014: “
rather we expect negotiations tobut rather we think negotiations will continue after the current provisional deal is extended with a few possiblesmall additions.”; “Unlike the unanimousApril 2013 vote to implement the qualitative and quantitative easing program, which was unanimous, this vote was tight (5-4).”; “Germany’s inflation will be a preview for the Euro Area’s inflationserve as a preview for the Euro Area number due out later next week.“
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