Watch U.S. and China data
05 sep 2014
Next week in detail
Events in red are those most likely to shake markets.
During the week
- Mexico: Auto production and sales (Aug), wage settlements (Aug).
- India: Foreign trade (Aug).
- USA: Fed speech: Plosser (FOMC voter). Charles Plosser, the hawkish president of the Philadelphia Fed, will give a speech on the economic outlook before the Pennsylvania Association of Community Bankers. Plosser has recently made headlines due to his dissidence at the heart of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC).
- Japan: GDP (Q2, final).
- China: Foreign trade (Aug). Consensus estimates: exports +9.0% year on year (from +14.5% in July), imports +3.0% year on year (from –1.6% in July).
- Turkey: Industrial production (Jul).
- Germany: Foreign trade (Jul).
- Japan: Monetary policy meeting minutes (Aug 7-8). On August 8, the Bank of Japan decided to continue expanding its monetary base at an annual pace of about 60–70 trillion yen, and left unchanged its asset purchase program.
- UK: Industrial production (Jul), foreign trade (Jul).
- USA: EIA Short-Term Energy Outlook (Sep), job openings and labor turnover (Jul). This report includes three indicators on Yellen’s dashboard: quits, hires, and job openings rates. All three are moving up, but only the job openings rate has recovered to pre-crisis levels.
- Mexico: Consumer prices (H2 Aug), consumer prices (Aug).
- Global: OPEC Monthly oil market report (Aug).
- Turkey: GDP (Q2).
- USA: Federal government income and spending (Aug).
- Global: IEA monthly oil market report (Aug). We’re hoping for help in assessing the effects on the oil market of the deteriorating geopolitical situation in Ukraine, Libya, and Iraq.
- China: Consumer prices (Aug).
- Korea: Unemployment rate (Aug).
- USA: Unemployment claims (Sep 6), world agricultural supply and demand estimates (Aug).
- Brazil: Monetary policy meeting minutes (Sep 3). In its last meeting, the Central Bank of Brazil (CBB) decided to leave unchanged its monetary policy rate at 11.0%. Alexandre Antonio Tombini, the CBB governor, doesn’t have an easy job: the Brazilian GDP moved down –0.6% quarter on quarter in Q2, while inflation stagnated at the upper bound of the target (6.5%) in August.
- Mexico: Industrial production (Jul).
- Korea: Monetary policy decision. After last month’s cut, the consensus forecast is for no change: 2.25%.
- India: Industrial production (Jul).
- Euro Area: Industrial production (Jul). The euro area industrial production hasn’t recovered to pre-crisis levels and, on top of that, last week’s manufacturing PMI wasn’t encouraging: it unveiled a slowdown. Consensus estimate: +1.4% year on year (from 0.0% in July).
- USA: Retail sales (Aug), business inventories (Jul), U. Michigan consumer confidence and inflation expectations (Sep, preliminary). Retail sales stagnated last month, while consumer confidence has been rising all year. Consensus estimates: retail sales +0.3% month on month (from 0.0% in July), consumer confidence: 83.5 (from 82.5 last month).
- China: Retail sales (Aug), fixed investment (Aug), industrial production (Aug). China’s industrial production has been trending down since January, weak August PMIs suggest no change in trend. Consensus estimates: retail sales +12.1% year on year (from +12.2% in July), industrial production +8.8% year on year (from 9.0% in July).
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